25 NL - What implied odds should I get to call?

[Arcturus]

Villain is 40/5/3 through 35 hands. I don't have any other reads on him. I have been stealing blinds as I usually do and have won some hands (non-blind steals) leading up to this one.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($3.95)
MP ($30.55)
Hero ($33.65)
SB ($26.50)
BB (Villain) ($61.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $1, UTG folds.

Flop: ($2.85) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $3</font>, Hero calls $1.50.

The only reason I called here was to not give the impression that I was going to fold to any min. re-raise on the flop (image purposes.)

Turn: ($8.85) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $7.25</font>, <font color="#0000FF">Hero... </font>

Here's where my question lies. The only thing I can hit to win this hand is a flush. I'm thinking that villain has an A. Also, there is the slight chance he has just filled up if he was playing A3, A4, 33, or 44. I have the effective stack of $29.40. The pot is $16.10 after his $7.25 turn bet. Therefore, I'm getting 6.25 to 1 implied odds. If villain has a lone Ace, I'm assuming here that I would have 8 outs to the flush, since the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] would likely sink me. That means I'm 4.8 to 1 to hit. However, that didn't include the times I'm drawing dead. So, most likely I'm not getting enough implied odds to draw to the flush and I should fold.

What would be the acceptable limit of implied odds I should receive to call and draw to the flush and why?

[iRunBad123]

i would fold because a queen king or even 10 of diamonds may not be good

[slush420]

probably if he bets ~$4 or less on the turn but I hate the call on the flop.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]
Therefore, I'm getting 6.25 to 1 implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

no.

nonononono.

Here is how to calculate your implied odds.

(pot + the bet size you have to call + remaining effective stack after you call) x % chance that villain calls a bet on the river IF you hit your hand. This is assuming you are ahead when you make the hand. You divide this number by the amount you have to call to get the x:1 figure.

So in this hand it's (8.85+7.25+22.15)x how often he calls a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] river with a worse hand.

If he calls 100% of the time with a worse hand your implied odds are 38.25 to 7.25 or ~5 to 1.

(you can guesstimate a ballpark figure at the table by saying 35:7 = 5:1 and it's slightly more than that...)

If we make a conservative guesstimate that 70% of the time he calls with a worse hand when we make the flush then we are only getting implied odds of 26.77:7.25 = ~3.7 to 1.

Basically implied odds are the ratio of immediate risk to the value you expect to get - and you can't expect to get called everytime you make teh hand you are drawing to.

It's ot a good plan to justify drawing to weak hands given the board texture and opponents tendancies by greatly overestimating your implied odds.

e.g. in the OP hand there are TWO Aces on board - if our villain here is a bit of a donk i) he might often have Ace rag that made a boat ii) donks fear 3flush boards often and tend to fold hands facing a big bet when the flush hits. This slashes our implied odds considerably and you have to take this into account.

As a general rule of thumb in most raised (but not reraised) pots you have good implied odds preflop and on the flop - and bad implied odds on the turn/river. You almost never have good implied odds in 3bet pots (assuming 100bb stacks all round)

as far as the hand goes - bet closer to pot on the flop - and fold if raised.

[bozzer]

i hope i haven't misread matrix's post (had a few JDs), but he seems to be ignoring the amount villain is likely to call on the river which is cruical.

your implied odds are: chance you hit * amount you make on average when you hit

[matrix]

no I'm not [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

we are saying the same thing in different ways more or less.

implied odds are the ratio of the amount you risk now to the amount you expect to gain on average when you make your hand.

I am ignoring the "amount" here cos stack sizes mean that hero is obv pushing if he hits the river with less than a PSB behind at that point.

Why on earth would you bet less than your remaining stack here if you spike the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[bozzer]

oh ok fine.

i am looking for that bobbosfitos post in SSNL where he gives a quiz with lots of draws and implied odds and stuff. there are some good methods for working out implied odds in that thread.

[matrix]

these ones?

part1
part 2

give a man some fish and you feed him for a day...teach him how to search.... (this is in the SSNL sticky [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )