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  #1  
Old 11-29-2007, 07:53 PM
Hebel Hebel is offline
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Default Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

I played this hand tonight at nl25

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($24.90)
Hero ($29.20)
BB ($21.45)
UTG ($25.80)
MP ($48.85)
CO ($12.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $10.45 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $7.45.

Turn: ($25.15) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>
.

River: ($25.15) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $25.15

Lets break this hand down step by step. Assume that villain is unknown, but you have seen him limp into the pot with marginal hands and view him as loose. His short stack contributes to the idea that he isnt very good.

Preflop, we can assume that 1010 is ahead of a not very good players range. Lets assign him a minraising a range of 22+, k10+, q10+ and A8+. This is a simplistic range, and a loose villains range could easily be much wider or tighter. But against this one, 1010 has 61% equity. So a pf reraise is in order.
Pre-flop

Wins Ties Equity
60.16% 0.51% 60.67% ( TcTs )
38.82% 0.51% 39.33% ( 22+, KT+, A8+, QT+ )



When villain smooth calls, I think it is safe to eliminate KK/AA from his range, as a bad villain would probably just shove. So lets tighten his range slightly to 22-QQ,K10+, and A8+. Against this range, our 10s still have 61% equity after the flop:

Board: 8c 9c Qh

Wins Ties Equity
59.55% 1.14% 60.69% ( TcTs )
38.17% 1.14% 39.31% ( 22+, KT+, A8+, QT+ )

So a Cbet is in order.

Once villain shoves, we must tighten his range further. Assume villain is pushing any Q, overs with a flush draw, a made straight with 10j (left out before for simplicities sake), A9, and occasionally a small pair as a bluff. Against this range, we still have 40% equity

Board: 8c 9c Qh

Wins Ties Equity
37.96% 2.14% 40.10% ( TcTs )
57.76% 2.14% 59.90% ( AcKc, AcJc, QT+, QQ, 88, 99, TJ, 66, A9 )

This is because even against sets and a Q, we still have about a 25% chance of sucking out (a 10, J, and possibly running clubs). Additionally, we may be ahead if villain is occasionally bluffing or shoving a worse hand or draw. Given the pot odds of 2.5:1, what looks like a clear fold is actually a call.
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  #2  
Old 11-29-2007, 07:58 PM
bsball8806 bsball8806 is offline
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Default Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

I don't see him doing this with either A9 or as a bluff, given that you 3bet him preflop, then led out a flop that he knew you'd have to call if he raised you.
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  #3  
Old 11-29-2007, 08:22 PM
The Reese The Reese is offline
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Default Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

I do like the analysis as it pertains to equity but why are rationalizing giving away money. He almost never is bluffing with underpairs or A9 here.
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  #4  
Old 11-29-2007, 08:32 PM
kimos123 kimos123 is offline
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Default Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

im folding this.
QJ is a very likly hand IMO.
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  #5  
Old 11-29-2007, 08:55 PM
NeverScurred NeverScurred is offline
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Default Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

Only the last equity calc is relevant, and it's flawed because I think the hand range you assigned to him is incorrect. It seems from the preflop and initial flop analysis that you assume people call bets with 100% of their ranges, which isn't the case.
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  #6  
Old 11-29-2007, 09:16 PM
winnnar winnnar is offline
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Default Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

I think you played this well PF with the 3-bet and the bet on the flop. However, When these kind of donks shove on top of us here after we've shown this much strength, it is seldomly a draw and he probably has us beat. You are getting a good price to call, but just know that you are very likely to be behind. I would probably fold here.
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  #7  
Old 11-29-2007, 09:19 PM
winnnar winnnar is offline
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Default Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

Not to hijack your thread, but here is a hand I recently played that is a similar situation. Like you, I decided to call.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (4 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($25)
UTG ($24.85)
Button ($16.75)
SB ($28.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, K.
UTG raises to $1</font>, Button calls $1, SB calls $0.90, Hero raises to $4</font>, UTG folds, Button calls $3, SB calls $3.

Flop: ($13) Q, 8, 2 (3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero bets $8</font>, Button raises to $12.75</font>, SB folds, Hero calls $4.75.

Turn: ($38.50) J (2 players)</font>

River: ($38.50) 5 (2 players)</font>

Final Pot: $38.50
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  #8  
Old 11-29-2007, 09:23 PM
mickb70 mickb70 is offline
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Location: Sydney, Australia
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Default Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

If you think he's loose with $12 effective stacks I like 3-bet to $3 which makes the hand play easier. We can c-bet to $4-$5 then and call is automatic. As played it leaves us this decision which we quite rightly dont like. I'm happy with a call or fold as played given possible redraws if behind although reads could swing this decision massively.
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  #9  
Old 11-29-2007, 09:26 PM
mickb70 mickb70 is offline
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Default Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

What am i missing? How are these hands similar?
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  #10  
Old 11-29-2007, 09:38 PM
winnnar winnnar is offline
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Default Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

well OP's was HU. other than that...3 way pot...hero shows strength PF and fl. Donkish villain shoves and we are pretty priced in to call.
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