Two Plus Two Newer Archives Street by street analysis of a marginal hand
 FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

#1
11-29-2007, 07:53 PM
 Hebel Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 389
Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

I played this hand tonight at nl25

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, \$0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button (\$24.90)
Hero (\$29.20)
BB (\$21.45)
UTG (\$25.80)
MP (\$48.85)
CO (\$12.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to \$0.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to \$2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls \$1.50.

Flop: (\$4.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets \$3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to \$10.45 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls \$7.45.

Turn: (\$25.15) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>
.

River: (\$25.15) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: \$25.15

Lets break this hand down step by step. Assume that villain is unknown, but you have seen him limp into the pot with marginal hands and view him as loose. His short stack contributes to the idea that he isnt very good.

Preflop, we can assume that 1010 is ahead of a not very good players range. Lets assign him a minraising a range of 22+, k10+, q10+ and A8+. This is a simplistic range, and a loose villains range could easily be much wider or tighter. But against this one, 1010 has 61% equity. So a pf reraise is in order.
Pre-flop

Wins Ties Equity
60.16% 0.51% 60.67% ( TcTs )
38.82% 0.51% 39.33% ( 22+, KT+, A8+, QT+ )

When villain smooth calls, I think it is safe to eliminate KK/AA from his range, as a bad villain would probably just shove. So lets tighten his range slightly to 22-QQ,K10+, and A8+. Against this range, our 10s still have 61% equity after the flop:

Board: 8c 9c Qh

Wins Ties Equity
59.55% 1.14% 60.69% ( TcTs )
38.17% 1.14% 39.31% ( 22+, KT+, A8+, QT+ )

So a Cbet is in order.

Once villain shoves, we must tighten his range further. Assume villain is pushing any Q, overs with a flush draw, a made straight with 10j (left out before for simplicities sake), A9, and occasionally a small pair as a bluff. Against this range, we still have 40% equity

Board: 8c 9c Qh

Wins Ties Equity
37.96% 2.14% 40.10% ( TcTs )
57.76% 2.14% 59.90% ( AcKc, AcJc, QT+, QQ, 88, 99, TJ, 66, A9 )

This is because even against sets and a Q, we still have about a 25% chance of sucking out (a 10, J, and possibly running clubs). Additionally, we may be ahead if villain is occasionally bluffing or shoving a worse hand or draw. Given the pot odds of 2.5:1, what looks like a clear fold is actually a call.
#2
11-29-2007, 07:58 PM
 bsball8806 Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: poker break till finals Posts: 738
Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

I don't see him doing this with either A9 or as a bluff, given that you 3bet him preflop, then led out a flop that he knew you'd have to call if he raised you.
#3
11-29-2007, 08:22 PM
 The Reese Junior Member Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 21
Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

I do like the analysis as it pertains to equity but why are rationalizing giving away money. He almost never is bluffing with underpairs or A9 here.
#4
11-29-2007, 08:32 PM
 kimos123 Senior Member Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 150
Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

im folding this.
QJ is a very likly hand IMO.
#5
11-29-2007, 08:55 PM
 NeverScurred Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 102
Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

Only the last equity calc is relevant, and it's flawed because I think the hand range you assigned to him is incorrect. It seems from the preflop and initial flop analysis that you assume people call bets with 100% of their ranges, which isn't the case.
#6
11-29-2007, 09:16 PM
 winnnar Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 58
Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

I think you played this well PF with the 3-bet and the bet on the flop. However, When these kind of donks shove on top of us here after we've shown this much strength, it is seldomly a draw and he probably has us beat. You are getting a good price to call, but just know that you are very likely to be behind. I would probably fold here.
#7
11-29-2007, 09:19 PM
 winnnar Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 58
Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

Not to hijack your thread, but here is a hand I recently played that is a similar situation. Like you, I decided to call.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, \$0.25 BB (4 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero (\$25)
UTG (\$24.85)
Button (\$16.75)
SB (\$28.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, K.
UTG raises to \$1</font>, Button calls \$1, SB calls \$0.90, Hero raises to \$4</font>, UTG folds, Button calls \$3, SB calls \$3.

Flop: (\$13) Q, 8, 2 (3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero bets \$8</font>, Button raises to \$12.75</font>, SB folds, Hero calls \$4.75.

Turn: (\$38.50) J (2 players)</font>

River: (\$38.50) 5 (2 players)</font>

Final Pot: \$38.50
#8
11-29-2007, 09:23 PM
 mickb70 Member Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sydney, Australia Posts: 59
Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

If you think he's loose with \$12 effective stacks I like 3-bet to \$3 which makes the hand play easier. We can c-bet to \$4-\$5 then and call is automatic. As played it leaves us this decision which we quite rightly dont like. I'm happy with a call or fold as played given possible redraws if behind although reads could swing this decision massively.
#9
11-29-2007, 09:26 PM
 mickb70 Member Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sydney, Australia Posts: 59
Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

What am i missing? How are these hands similar?
#10
11-29-2007, 09:38 PM
 winnnar Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 58
Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

well OP's was HU. other than that...3 way pot...hero shows strength PF and fl. Donkish villain shoves and we are pretty priced in to call.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Two Plus Two     Two Plus Two Internet Magazine     The Two Plus Two Bonus Program     Special Sklansky Forum     About the Forums     MOD DISCUSSION     Test General Poker Discussion     Beginners Questions     Books and Publications     Televised Poker     News, Views, and Gossip     Brick and Mortar     Home Poker     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance     Poker Theory     Poker Legislation Coaching/Training     Stoxpoker.com     DeucesCracked.com German Forums     Poker Allgemein: Poker in general     Strategie: Holdem NL cash [German]     Strategie: Sonstige     Internet/Online [German]     BBV [German]     Small Talk [German] French Forums     Forum Francophone     Strategie [French]     BBV [French] Limit Texas Hold'em     Texas Hold'em     High Stakes Limit     Medium Stakes Limit     Small Stakes Limit     Micro Stakes Limit     Mid-High Stakes Shorthanded     Small Stakes Shorthanded     Limit-->NL PL/NL Texas Hold'em     High Stakes     Medium Stakes     Small Stakes     Micro Stakes     Full Ring Tournament Poker     MTT Strategy     High Stakes MTT     MTT Community     STT Strategy     Tournament Circuit/WSOP Other Poker     Omaha/8     Omaha High     Stud     Heads Up Poker     Other Poker Games General Gambling     Probability     Psychology     Sports Betting     Other Gambling Games     Entertainment Betting     Money Making and Other Business Discussion Internet Gambling     Internet Gambling     Internet Bonuses     Affiliates/RakeBack     Software     Poker Site Software, Skins, & Networks 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics     The Lounge: Discussion+Review     EDF     BBV4Life Other Topics     Sporting Events     Politics     Business, Finance, and Investing     Travel     Science, Math, and Philosophy     Health and Fitness     Student Life     Golf     Video Games     Puzzles and Other Games     Laughs or Links!     Computer Technical Help     Bin Sponsored Support Forums     RakebackNetwork     RakeBackDepot     RakeReduction.com Rakeback     PokerSavvy

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:52 AM.