Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

[Hebel]

I apologize for including results too early in this thread. If you would like to disagree with my analysis, please revise villains range and show the math that you did making the call incorrect.

[C4LL4W4Y]

[ QUOTE ]
In my opinion, you are ahead in these situations more often than not to make always calling EV+. That being said, here is a hand that does not support that and very similar to your situation......

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $31.15
CO: $42
Button: $27.80
SB: $7.90
hero: $24.25

Pre-flop: (5 players) hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises to $2.25</font>, SB calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($4.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB is all-in $5.65</font>, hero calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($15.8, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $15.8)


River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($15.8, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $15.8)


Results:
Final pot: $15.8
<font color="#ffffff">SB showed Ts Qs</font>
<font color="#ffffff">hero showed Jc Jh</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

this hand is completely different, in that you have position and good equity..

[C4LL4W4Y]

i don't have time to do the math or go super in depth, but here's my quick analysis:

it's alright just assume that a bad player's minraising range includes all pairs, some meh Q + K's, and raggedy A's, as well as some bigger A's and K's. the real mistake of your hand, however, is in your calculation of his 3b calling range. when he calls the minraise, you have to tighten some of the BAD hands out of there as well as the good hands (and i'm kind of wary to remove KK and AA, because bad players at 25nl LOVE to slowplay big hands).

also, just because you have a certain amount of equity against a villain, doesn't mean you should always cbet - especially when OOP vs. a bad player. if you think he's going to shove/call light on a wet board like this, then by all means go ahead and bet/call. but i don't think you have enough information to make that decision.

also, your range for villains shove is way too wide. i think it's a marginal call once you get shipped, but no way do you have 40% equity on that board.