Checked pocket jacks preflop in BB, agree or disagree?

[sfetaz]

Yesterday I was playing 3/6 hold em at Taj Majal in Atlantic City. As usual the table was filled with a bunch of donkey maniacs. In this particular hand 6 other people called the BB and I look down and saw pocket jacks. The natural instinct is to raise, however I very quickly said this in my head and checked: There are 6 other people in this pot who are all capable of having almost any two cards. It is very reasonable to assume an A K and Q are all in people hands. If I raise no one will fold for a fact. The odds of an A K or Q flopping is over 60% (correct me if wrong). Even if no A K or Q flops, without a jack and the maniac play these people do, I have no way of knowing if my JJ is good at that point unless I flop a set. Finally, if I do raise, with all the callers, any form of reasonable draws on the flop are now getting a great price to stay in. And at this table, you have players capping the pot preflop with ace 10 and calling to the river with absolute nothing until their ace rivers and cracks my kings. So I checked. An ace flopped, there was bets and callers and I folded my jacks. The original post flop better did have the ace. Do you agree with the notion of saving the extra 3 dollars there?

[HoneyBadger]

Raise. For value.

[DeucesNeverLoses]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise. For value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I did the same thing today. 8/16 game I'm OTB with 88 and I get 5 LPs limping in before me. I raise to build a HUGE pot if I flop a set. Also, it may buy a free turn card if everyone checked to me.

[Yossarian147]

Jacks are a premium hand and have a big equity edge over the junk your opponents are playing. It doesn't matter that an ace will often flop. The times you hit a set or flop 3 undercards to your pair will more than make up for the extra bets you lose now and then. Raising magnifies the mistake your loose opponents have made by already entering the pot.

[Niediam]

So you save $3 when you hit a bad flop and miss $18 when you have a good one? Hmmmm...

(Obviously it's not quite that simple but I hope you get the point.)

[sfetaz]

[ QUOTE ]
So you save $3 when you hit a bad flop and miss $18 when you have a good one? Hmmmm...

(Obviously it's not quite that simple but I hope you get the point.)

[/ QUOTE ]

But a set flops about 1 out of every 8 times, so doesn't that mean in theory I need to invest $24 to win that $18 the one time I hit the set?

[Niediam]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you save $3 when you hit a bad flop and miss $18 when you have a good one? Hmmmm...

(Obviously it's not quite that simple but I hope you get the point.)

[/ QUOTE ]

But a set flops about 1 out of every 8 times, so doesn't that mean in theory I need to invest $24 to win that $18 the one time I hit the set?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are probably going to win around 25% (rough estimate) of the time that you don't flop a set though.

[HoneyBadger]

Yeah, pocket jacks win unimproved often enough.

As for the set odds, you will often win much more in case you do flop a set. So your implied odds are much better than 7:1 here. You almost get immediate odds to draw to a set alone; therefore, a raise is clearly the best play.

An additional plus is that nobody raised, making it very unlikely anyone holds an overpair, or even two overcards, to your jacks.

[RatFink]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you save $3 when you hit a bad flop and miss $18 when you have a good one? Hmmmm...

(Obviously it's not quite that simple but I hope you get the point.)

[/ QUOTE ]

But a set flops about 1 out of every 8 times, so doesn't that mean in theory I need to invest $24 to win that $18 the one time I hit the set?

[/ QUOTE ]

All of the $3 and $18 is oversimplified math. It represents only the preflop money you are leaving on the table by not raising for value.

When you do hit your set you will collect much more post-flop that the $24 you are "risking", and by raising you will collect more as the pots will be larger and defended by more hands.

Not raising when you have a hand that will win more than it's fair share, and are guaranteed to get called is throwing money away.

Even if you played ultra weak-tight post-flop and made the preflop raise, and check-folded everytime you did not hit a set of Jacks, you'd make money by the preflop raise.

Missing these bets, or not betting flops cause flush draws might hit on the turn, etc.. represent a misunderstanding based in trying to of trying to win hands instead of trying to win money. It will help your game to understand why this preflop raise is not only right, but is essential.

[HoneyBadger]

[ QUOTE ]
You are probably going to win around 25% (rough estimate) of the time that you don't flop a set though.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your intuition is good [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

38,983,702 games 1283.203 secs 30,379 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.671% 26.29% 00.39% 10247192 150289.90 { JcJd }
Hand 1: 12.223% 11.25% 00.97% 4387232 377833.15 { JJ-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, 43s, 32s, AJo-A2o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 12.228% 11.26% 00.97% 4388998 377811.74 { JJ-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, 43s, 32s, AJo-A2o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 3: 12.214% 11.25% 00.97% 4383924 377678.90 { JJ-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, 43s, 32s, AJo-A2o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 4: 12.223% 11.25% 00.97% 4387260 377728.49 { JJ-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, 43s, 32s, AJo-A2o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 5: 12.218% 11.25% 00.97% 4384683 378579.32 { JJ-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, 43s, 32s, AJo-A2o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 6: 12.222% 11.25% 00.97% 4386711 378102.49 { JJ-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K2s, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, 43s, 32s, AJo-A2o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }