Checked pocket jacks preflop in BB, agree or disagree?

[Bob T.]

Raise.

You saved three dollars, at the cost of several theorhetical dollars over the long run.

Does anyone else remember the pocket jacks in the sb thread, that cost the forum two poster before it was through?

[HoneyBadger]

[ QUOTE ]

Does anyone else remember the pocket jacks in the sb thread, that cost the forum two poster before it was through?

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought that was 99 from the SB with fewer (three?) limpers; which, imho, is not as clear-cut.

(here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rt=all&vc=1 )

[Ricks]

I understand your reluctance to raise this because you are going to lose about 75% of the time anyway. Why blow the extra SB just to be disappointed?

(I think the reasons why you should put the extra bet in have been explained well by the previous posters but I already typed the following and I'm also trying to reach 1000 posts. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img])

You have to overcome this rational and not feel that loosing with this hand once, twice, or more than three times in a row means the hand is not worth raising. Consider it the cost of winning more money in the long run because you will surely win with this hand way more than 15% of the time.

According to Wikipedia, there will not be OCs on the flop to your jacks 43% of the time. You will also hit a set 12% of the time. Makes me want to raise.

[James.]

you are going to win with this hand ~25% of the time.

you have 6 opponents plus yourself. a field of 7 players. fair share of equity is 1/7 or 14%. you clearly have an equity edge. being successful at limit hold em is defined by maximizing edges like this; you make an immediate theoretical profit when you raise.

think of it as making those overcards pay to draw out on your JJ.

calling: 7sb(6callers and you)*.25 = 1.75sb as your share of the preflop pot. .77sb better than your fair share.

raising: 14sb*.25 = 3.5sb as your share of the preflop pot. 1.54sb better than your fair share.

this is super-simplified, but i'm hoping you see my point. 1.54sb is alot of money in the long run. it's around 50 hands worth of profit for a 1.5bb/100 player. that's forfeiting over an hour's worth of profit if you are playing live(more like 1.25-1.5 hours). what you are actually giving up by not raising is half of that, but still a significant amount of value over the longrun.

[Bob T.]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought that was 99 from the SB with fewer (three?) limpers; which, imho, is not as clear-cut.

(here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...t=all&vc=1 )

[/ QUOTE ]

No, the one I was thinking about was back in 2000, or 2001. Whoever posted it was CERTAIN that he made the right play, and about 15 people replied, and they were all CERTAIN that he made the wrong play. About the first two rounds of debate, were based on logic, and after that, things degenerated.

The OP made a 'farewell to 2+2' post, and I think that the discussion was so abusive, that at least one other poster got banned. For a while after that, everytime anyone asked about raising this or that from the blinds, a bunch of posters, just said, 'I would respond, but this could be another JJ from the SB thread.'

I think that Clarkmeister, Dynasty, Dave from Cali, maybe Majorkong (NPA Ed Miller) Louis Landale, and a lot of other old time posters were involved in it.

[SNOWBALL]

OP,

Read Ed Miller's "Getting started in hold em" book, or "Small stakes hold em" available through 2p2.

[threeducks]

[ QUOTE ]
OP,

Read Ed Miller's "Getting started in hold em" book, or "Small stakes hold em" available through 2p2.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting - SSHE says to raise with AA-99 in the blinds. [ QUOTE ]
9. Five players limp, the SB completes, and you have 99 in the BB.

Raise. You have six opponents and a MUCH better than 1/7 chance to win this hand. Your position is terrible, but your edge is too big to miss out.


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This is for low limit and loose games where the players are bad. Everyone (I think) said to raise. I sometimes raise in the BB with JJ and sometimes check. The 3rd addition to WLLH recommends to check for surprise factor - check/raise the flop etc. But, I suspect that posters on this thread do not think that much of WLLH and prefer SSHE? I think that WLLH think the players are generally better (I do not want to start a debate here).

There are compelling reasons to raise (pot equity) and I am not afraid to throw in that extra bet at 3/6 or 6/12. I announce I have a big pair and then the players know how to react to my flop action.

Ed Miller has a very good DVD (set of 4) for limit hold'em where he discusses this.

If the players at the table know me well, I sometimes check. If not I will raise almost ever time. I have started to raise more hands from the blinds lately based on advice from Ed (big and suited).

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2. UTG raises and gets four cold-callers. You are in the SB with KQs.

Raise. Despite your position, I think you should 3-bet. Your hand has so much POT EQUITY against five others that I think you need to push your edge.

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[Hyperrrprank]

Raisin!

[chimpanzepoopdic]

Op, the money that you have already put into the pot as the BB is gone. A raise will give you 13 to 1 on your money. As the other posters have said you will win with this hand roughly 25 % of the time or 3 to 1. Thats huge! If someone reraises behind you and everyone calls you will still make money on every bet that goes in PF. Don't fear all of the trashy hands that the limpers hold, welcome them, because most of them are getting way the worst of it. I raise with a lot of much worse hands from the BB regularly in loose crazy games.

[Bob T.]

[ QUOTE ]
A raise will give you 13 to 1 on your money. As the other posters have said you will win with this hand roughly 25 % of the time or 3 to 1. Thats huge

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You don't have this quite right. You shouldn't be counting the money already in the pot to determine whether or not you have the odds to raise. Just the money that will go in as a result of the raise. In this case, it looks like the hand is going to be 7 handed, so you get 6-1 on a hand that is likely to be a 3-1 underdog.

If you count the money already in, and the pot was seeded with 100 big bets, everyone could justify raising on every street ( not that that wouldn't be a bad play,) because they always had more than a 1% chance of winning.