$100nl - river value bet?

[toucan]

Not been playing long but have stats on villain as 58.36/2.93/0.63 ([img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]party) over 200+ hands. What would people recommend on the river here?

Party Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $171.02
BTN: $105.30
SB: $111.36
BB: $95.50
UTG: $296.41
MP: $31.83

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $3.50, BB calls $3

Flop: ($12) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $4</font>, BB calls $4, <font color="red">Hero raises to $14</font>, SB calls $10, BB folds

Turn: ($44) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $3</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $30</font>, SB calls $27

River: ($104) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks

[spivey]

Do it, and it ain't that thin against an uberstation like that.

[the machine]

check. we only have one pair and beat JQ JK JA. not saying his range isnt wider then this but hes not folding 2 pair

[spivey]

[ QUOTE ]
check. we only have one pair and beat JQ JK JA. not saying his range isnt wider then this but hes not folding 2 pair

[/ QUOTE ]

This guy is probably calling a vb with J2, K9, and all sorts of dogshit.

[Kinbor]

i'd make it 60$, he will call you with worse and better hands.

[toucan]

Thanks for the replies.

It just seems like a lottery betting against players this bad and this passive who are totally capable of checking a ten to you let alone a set or two pair with the intention of calling.

Still not sure on the right amount to bet. If I value bet $30ish and he raises AI can I puke and fold getting huge odds against a guy like this who clearly has no clue?

[Pat Southern]

I'd check, you just lose to so many goofy combos of hands that he can have here. But if I was going to bet it'd be a shove.