when giving free cards is better than betting vulnerable hands

[innerpeace]

there have been fewer generic concepts posts in hsnl, so i'd like to contribute one based on a live hand i played a while back. imho, it's interesting because it illustrates a situation where checking the mortal nuts on the turn when villain has outs is more optimal than betting to protect.

blinds are 200/400 with a 25 dollar ante. we are seven handed. there has been a live straddle for the last few orbits livening up the action. preflop is folded to the cutoff who calls the straddle. cutoff is pretty weak imho. i'm on the button and make it 3000 to go with qj suited. with a straddler and limper, i am capable of making this raise on the button with a very wide range, and the good players at the table, including villain, know this.

villain in sb repops to 8000. folds to me. villain has a little more than 150k behind and i cover. we're deep and i feel that i can outplay villain post flop, so i call. villain can make this raise with almost any two cards knowing that i may be stealing. however, based on villain's behavior, i feel he likely has a premium starting hand, but i was still a little uncertain of my read.

flop is a-10-4 rainbow. villain leads for 15k into an 18k pot - which he can do with any two cards. i pop to 45k. i think villain folds anything except a set and will give me enough of a read that i can confidently fire again on the turn if i don't think he has a set, so my raise is +ev.

villain hems/haws/hollywoods for a while and calls. now i'm almost certain he has a set of aces, at worst a set of 10s.

turn is a king completing the rainbow and giving me the mortal nuts. villain checks.

here pushing is +ev as i'm certain villain will call. since villain has ten outs, one might naively think that betting is correct here to avoid giving a free card. however, checking is better.

although villain will likely call a push now, he will also call a push on any river, except for maybe a q or j. however, he has ten outs to fill up. on the other hand if i check the turn, then i can push a non-pairing river and fold otherwise. checking allows me to steer clear of losing money the 20 percent of the time villain fills up.

i haven't seen this concept of checking behind the mortal nuts sometimes being correct discussed on these boards (in contrast to limit games). so, i hope this hand generates interesting discussion.

[fslexcduck]

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i think villain folds anything except a set

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and will give me enough of a read that i can confidently fire again on the turn if i don't think he has a set

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huh?

but yeah if he will call a push if on Q or J comes on river, then clearly checking is correct since 6 cards kill you rather than 10. esp. since he will prob check call a decent amt on a Q or J river.

the question is - is this really true, that he plays this obviously? and can you definitely get away from any bet on a board pairing river?

but given your set of (ideal and unrealistically certain in my opinion) circumstances, checking is clearly the right play

[AragornX151]

doesn't this require an absolutely flawless read to be valid?

[innerpeace]

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doesn't this require an absolutely flawless read to be valid?

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it requires an accurate read. important to note that it's a live game.

[innerpeace]

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i think villain folds anything except a set

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and will give me enough of a read that i can confidently fire again on the turn if i don't think he has a set

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huh?


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the sentiment i was trying to convey is that if he decides to call the flop without a set, i feel like i'll have enough of a read to know that and fire another shell.

[AragornX151]

i don't play this high or anything near it, but i think this is a really interesting concept and would like to participate if you don't mind, innerpeace...

It being live clearly makes a big difference...what if you widened his range to include, say, top 2 pair here? would that make a difference in your play?

[Kala1928]

Going all in on the turn with 81% equity equals 300,000$*0,81=+243,000$

Checking the turn behind and folding when the board pairs equals 300,000$*-0,19=-57,000$
I'm not sure how the amount of dollars you have already invested in the pot affects this option.

Checking the turn behind and calling/pushing non pairing river equals 300,000$

Checking the turn behind and valuebetting a Q/J river equals 108,000$+(n*y) which is sick hard to calculate because you need to know amount to bet n and frequency of him calling y. I'll just use 60,000$ and 50% for the sake of making the calculation.

Checking the turn behind and valuebettin a Q/J river equals 108,000$+60,000$*0,5=138,000$
Now this happens 12% of the time you check the turn behind.

So checking the turn behind will result in

a) board pairing 19% of the time
b) river being Q/J 12% of the time
c) river being a brick 69% of the time

note that by checking the turn behind ev wise you not only lose the pot 19% of the time but you actually give up a partion of the pot in S$ to your opponent(19% of the pot).

a+b+c

0,19*-57K+0,12*138K+0,69*300K = +234,390$ which is actually 9000$ less than going all in on the turn.


My intuition also says that because hero has already invested almost 1/3 of his stack to the pot not going allin with an 81% chance of winning a big pot is not correct. This would make more sense if hero has only invested a small amount (less than 19%) of his stack but is still sure he will stack villain on a non-pairing river card.

[illuminati]

Jesus this is terrible...

"checking allows me to steer clear of losing money the 20 percent of the time villain fills up."

His range is this tight?

"now i'm almost certain he has a set of aces, at worst a set of 10s."

[CallYNotRaise06]

isnt it good to get alot of money in when your ~80% favorite? also, youve already invested about 1/3 of your stack, so i see no reason why you shouldnt shove the turn now.

[darnold305]

Saying that he only has a set when he calls is a little absurd. I mean, any chance he's better than you? You have QJ. He could think you're bluffing, which you were on the flop... maybe you're getting leveled here