Oil Futures at Bodog.

[cefis21]

Oil futures are up at Bodog. Closing price $102.75 on Dec 31 plus gas props. Need an expert analysis.

[thing85]

Well, I don't know how to read futures markets well so take this with a huge grain of salt, but here are the current oil futures prices:

Dec 2007 - $95.90
Jan 2008 - $94.92

Source: http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx

Again, I could be misinterpreting this, but the under $102.75 for -120 seems like a decent play.

[Stephen H]

I have to wonder if there's an arb to be had with betting on bodog + investing in the market.

[thing85]

Max bet for Bodog is $50, so even if there is, it wouldn't be worth it.

[cefis21]

Thanks for the reply Thing that's exactly what I was looking for. I was hoping that you were the one to reply.

A future of $95 and a Bodog price of $102.75 is quite a difference. There would have to be a 9.2% jump to hit the over. Or us bombing Iran.

[thing85]

[ QUOTE ]
I was hoping that you were the one to reply.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not so sure about this considering my relative lack of knowledge about financial derivatives. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Stephen H]

Given the large minimums to participating in the market, the arb comment is mostly just a funny thought to me.

From a serious perspective, I would recommend comparing oil future prices from 2 months out to prices at the time the delivery date hit - for example, look at October oil future prices from august, and see how they moved. I believe futures are expected to be somewhat lower than the eventual trading cost of the time, but I don't have any idea how much lower. If the number turns out to be around 5%, then the difference isn't that big and maybe the juice on the bet makes it not worth it.