2/4 - River sexy time with history?

[JrJordan]

Villain is 22/4 over 100 hands so far. We have two notable hands of history shown below:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($407.85)
SB ($408)
BB ($108.20)
Hero ($465.95)
MP ($447.10)
CO ($411.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $14</font>, MP calls $14, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>.

Flop: ($34) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $24</font>, MP calls $24.

Turn: ($82) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $60</font>, MP calls $60.

River: ($202) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $112</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $202

------------------------------------------------------------

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($412.20)
CO ($203.80)
Button ($181.90)
Hero ($396)
BB ($539.60)
UTG ($477.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $16</font>, BB calls $12.

Flop: ($32) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $22</font>, BB calls $22.

Turn: ($76) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $56</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $76

-----------------------------------------------------------

I think he's floating me but don't have any showdown hands to prove it. Onto the actual hand


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($531.20)
BB ($66.65)
Hero ($414.20)
MP ($569.20)
Button ($503.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $14</font>, MP calls $14, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($34) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $22</font>, MP calls $22.

Turn: ($78) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $60</font>, MP calls $60.

River: ($198) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks planning to CRAI.


Value bet vs. a pocket pair, or go for the sexy given the history?

[Andykay]

Depends how good he is. If he's a thinking player with a decent memory, he's going to remember how both those previous hands played out. If he views you as decent I think he's checking behind most of his medium strength hands here because he's gotta know you're going to use that history against him at some point.

I think a straight up value bet is probably more profitable overall, his hand looks like 66/77 and he's not folding.

-Andy

[JrJordan]

[ QUOTE ]
Depends how good he is. If he's a thinking player with a decent memory, he's going to remember how both those previous hands played out. If he views you as decent I think he's checking behind most of his medium strength hands here because he's gotta know you're going to use that history against him at some point.

I think a straight up value bet is probably more profitable overall, his hand looks like 66/77 and he's not folding.

-Andy

[/ QUOTE ]

His stats and general play at the table would suggest he's a fish instead of a smart thinking player fwiw.

[AAismyfriend]

Go for it. Even if he checks, it should slow him down in the future which is good.

[Teh1337zor]

like it, he probably feels he can push you off of everyhand, this should keep him honest in later hands and he might call you with like 77 using the "ZOMG HES SICK OF ME PUSHING HIM AROUND AND IS MAKING A MOVE" logic

[tuckercat]

i say v town like always.

[Andykay]

Ah I misred his stats as 22/14, which would probably make him a slightly more passive but decent TAG.

With that in mind I like the play a lot more. These kind of guys tend to think they can always push you off hands when you show weakness. This is their chance to pull off 'fully sick bluffs', so i'd just let him hang himself.

-Andy

[homeboy604]

i love it.

[Colombo]

Sure, it's fine.

I'm trying to decide if I like betting $60/calling better though.

[JEFF or DAD]

id much much rather just bet 150