give up or bluff river

[beanwater]

1$2$ 6 players
hero is in BB with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero checks

flop: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, Hero bets, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, SB folds
turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
hero bets, UTG+1 calls
river: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
hero bets, UTG+1 calls

should i c/f this river or does bluffing have value here?

[Absolution]

Just give it up. He limped first in. He is not folding much of anything that you're behind. Does anybody just check call the turn in this spot? I can't see many hands that he's going to fold on that turn.

[johnnylovescandy]

You can't check here and let UTG flip ace-high draw for the cheap win. Regardless what UTG has, he played it horribly, and you stand to make tons o' cash off a sucker like this...

[exlka]

Bet against unknown
This pot is definately worth fighting for. He could be easily on a draw and bluff bet if checked to. A high might give up as well.

[milesdyson]

bet for sure. KJ J9 AsXs and KsXs make up enough hands that fold now

[mvoss]

Board is sooo drawy, I'd bet it unless I know villain calls down very light.

[Heisenb3rg]

I think this is a clear bet even if they call down very light.

The point isnt to fold out ace high its to fold out his missed draws. Ace high has an easy call here.. if hes calling the turn hes calling the river.

Your job is to asses what % of his range contains missed draws and see wheter its high enough to profitably bluff at the pot.

The focus should be on the agression of the player and how lightly they peel the flop.

Sometimes you can narrow agressive players distribution down pretty significantly when they just call, because they would have semibluffed a lot of their draws on the flop as well as raised their good hands..

Then again super calling stations have more ace high/low PP hands in their distribution.. But they are also much less likely to haev semi-bluffed their draws.

I think because he limped UTG, you can assume a player profile with somewhat passive play and put anything from KJ, to a gutshot that picked up a diamond draw, to a spade draw in his range, as well as eliminate any hand > TP.
Against this range you have an easy bet.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
The point isnt to fold out ace high its to fold out his missed draws. Ace high has an easy call here.. if hes calling the turn hes calling the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
any ace high flush draw does not have an easy river call. we bet the flop 4-way and haven't stopped. there are also other ace high hands that can now fold, depending on how loose passive the player is. AJ may have called down looking for a pair or straight. A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 or A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 may have called flop looking for the bdfd and hit a gutshot on turn. i just dont think ace high is calling very much - not that there are many ace high hands in his range anyway.

[Absolution]

The fact that everybody else disagreed with me and I said to check here is probably a good indication that I'm running bad in these situations lately. I had someone call down with KTo in a spot similar to this recently. The board was less draw heavy too.

[milesdyson]

keep in mind you are mostly going to bet, be called, and lose the pot. whatever though. he only has to fold 1 time in 6 to break even.