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#22
07-24-2007, 11:18 PM
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Re: Collapse of the American Economy?
LOL @ social security or medicare collapsing the US economy. Worst case scenario the benefits are scaled back and some old people die earlier than they could have.
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#23
07-25-2007, 12:07 AM
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Re: Collapse of the American Economy?
[ QUOTE ]
.) Increasing Inflation - I mean real inflation, not the crap the government reports..... [/ QUOTE ] what is "real inflation"?
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#24
07-25-2007, 12:10 AM
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Re: Collapse of the American Economy?
DJSHADOW,
[ QUOTE ] .) Increasing Inflation - I mean real inflation, not the crap the government reports..... [/ QUOTE ] Care to share your preferred measure of inflation?
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#25
07-25-2007, 12:14 AM
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Re: Collapse of the American Economy?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] .) Increasing Inflation - I mean real inflation, not the crap the government reports..... [/ QUOTE ] what is "real inflation"? [/ QUOTE ] Well for one "real inflation" is not "ex food and energy" - if energy goes up 50% in 3 yearsthat gets ignored.... that adds a few % to the annual inflation rate IMO. Second... is consumer goods are adjusted... takethis for example... one year a car costs 10000$ without air bag - next year the same model costs 11000$ but now the airbag is standard - the government agencies that figure inflation would assign lets say a 500$ value to the air bag so instead ofthe price increasing 10% it only "really" went up 5%.... that sort of stuff !!!! (This maybe a stupid example but I hope you see what I mean)
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#26
07-25-2007, 12:15 AM
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Re: Collapse of the American Economy?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] .) Increasing Inflation - I mean real inflation, not the crap the government reports..... [/ QUOTE ] what is "real inflation"? [/ QUOTE ] Well for one "real inflation" is not "ex food and energy" - if energy goes up 50% in 3 yearsthat gets ignored.... that adds a few % to the annual inflation rate IMO. Second... is consumer goods are adjusted... takethis for example... one year a car costs 10000$ without air bag - next year the same model costs 11000$ but now the airbag is standard - the government agencies that figure inflation would assign lets say a 500$ value to the air bag so instead ofthe price increasing 10% it only "really" went up 5%.... that sort of stuff !!!! (This maybe a stupid example but I hope you see what I mean) [/ QUOTE ] oh yeah andthe most important one I forgot.... take how much housing prices have gone up - 100% in 5 years in a lot of areas... the agencies use some sort of rent equivalent BS to adjust for the increase, not the real price increase in a starter home for example.
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#27
07-25-2007, 12:17 AM
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Re: Collapse of the American Economy?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] .) Increasing Inflation - I mean real inflation, not the crap the government reports..... [/ QUOTE ] what is "real inflation"? [/ QUOTE ] Well for one "real inflation" is not "ex food and energy" - if energy goes up 50% in 3 yearsthat gets ignored.... that adds a few % to the annual inflation rate IMO. Second... is consumer goods are adjusted... takethis for example... one year a car costs 10000$ without air bag - next year the same model costs 11000$ but now the airbag is standard - the government agencies that figure inflation would assign lets say a 500$ value to the air bag so instead ofthe price increasing 10% it only "really" went up 5%.... that sort of stuff !!!! (This maybe a stupid example but I hope you see what I mean) [/ QUOTE ] The government reports food and energy inflation as well. It just gets excluded from the numbers quoted in most newspapers. As for your second point, improvements in quality would cause inflation to be overstated.
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#28
07-25-2007, 12:17 AM
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Re: Collapse of the American Economy?
[ QUOTE ]
Second... is consumer goods are adjusted... takethis for example... one year a car costs 10000$ without air bag - next year the same model costs 11000$ but now the airbag is standard - the government agencies that figure inflation would assign lets say a 500$ value to the air bag so instead ofthe price increasing 10% it only "really" went up 5%.... that sort of stuff !!!! (This maybe a stupid example but I hope you see what I mean) [/ QUOTE ] I'm by no means a seasoned economist, but this sounds pretty reasonable to me. Let's make it something even simpler. One year a package of eggs contains 10 eggs, the next year it contains 12. Should you just use absolute numbers to calculate inflation? I think your method would confuse growth and inflation.
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#29
07-25-2007, 12:25 AM
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Re: Collapse of the American Economy?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] .) Increasing Inflation - I mean real inflation, not the crap the government reports..... [/ QUOTE ] what is "real inflation"? [/ QUOTE ] Well for one "real inflation" is not "ex food and energy" - if energy goes up 50% in 3 yearsthat gets ignored.... that adds a few % to the annual inflation rate IMO. Second... is consumer goods are adjusted... takethis for example... one year a car costs 10000$ without air bag - next year the same model costs 11000$ but now the airbag is standard - the government agencies that figure inflation would assign lets say a 500$ value to the air bag so instead ofthe price increasing 10% it only "really" went up 5%.... that sort of stuff !!!! (This maybe a stupid example but I hope you see what I mean) [/ QUOTE ] saying that you should not adjust for improvements of quality is plain stupid. Why do you think your method is better than the methods of those who are paid to and spend their lives doing this? Do you have any qualifications at all?
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#30
07-25-2007, 12:30 AM
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Re: Collapse of the American Economy?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] .) Increasing Inflation - I mean real inflation, not the crap the government reports..... [/ QUOTE ] what is "real inflation"? [/ QUOTE ] Well for one "real inflation" is not "ex food and energy" - if energy goes up 50% in 3 yearsthat gets ignored.... that adds a few % to the annual inflation rate IMO. Second... is consumer goods are adjusted... takethis for example... one year a car costs 10000$ without air bag - next year the same model costs 11000$ but now the airbag is standard - the government agencies that figure inflation would assign lets say a 500$ value to the air bag so instead ofthe price increasing 10% it only "really" went up 5%.... that sort of stuff !!!! (This maybe a stupid example but I hope you see what I mean) [/ QUOTE ] what is your background? have you studied economics? surveys? financial markets? i don't mean to pry but i'd like to know to whom i'm responding. thanks, Barron PS- answer me this: look at the PCE composition and calculation, if your ideal reporting mechanism came into effect, how much greater would the numbers be? and would it really make a big difference? also, answer me another one: what makes you better at designing something like the PCE than people who spend their lives thinking about it? finally, what motivation does the BEA, BLS, or FED have to misstate inflation? keeping in mind that at least one of these organizations is independent of administration (and also thinking about the knock-on effect a systematic misstatement would have down the line)?
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Linear Mode
