If a spot is marginally +EV, do you shove regardless?

[ekinnehs18]

Fellas,

Been a long time lurker, finally decided to take SNGs seriously now and I figure 1st thing to do is start posting here.

My question is something that has always been on mind for a long time; What do you do for hands where it is a marginal push but a +EV one regardless?

For the sake of discussion, say you are 100% sure what an opponent's calling range is. If a shove is marginally +EV (+0.2,+0.3,+0.5, etc etc), do you still make it?

I run into situations like these all the time, some example:

1. 4 handed. 200/400 BLINDS
CO - small stack
BUTTON - mid small stack
SB - BIG STACK
BB - BIG STACK

Folded to you in SB. BB is tight (10% call range). I have K5sooted and I know it's a +EV shove.

Do you make that shove? You are in no danger to bust on the bubble, but the shove is +EV regardless. Is it necessary to take that risk or do you stick by your numbers

2. 6 handed 100/200 Blinds

Its folded to you on the button. You have a little under 10BB, say 9BB. Once again say you are 100% sure of opponent's calling range (tight, 8% call range)

You have J9o (or Q8sooted, 109sooted, etc, etc). Do you shove that? Is it worth the risk when you're still relatively healthy?
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Basically, I run into situations like these all the times in which I am faced with a +EV shove but I am not in desperate need of chips. You see, sometimes I shove these marginal +EV spots and it works but other times I get called. I simply can't find the fine line. Do you pass up these +EV shoves OR do you shove regardless because the numbers don't lie?

I would love to hear everyone thoughts.

- cheers

[sippin_criss]

Well if you *KNOW* then sure go for it. The problem with thin spots is the fact that your supposed ranges could be off a little bit to the point of making your play -EV.

[Finnisher]

There's a lot of spots where shoving seems marginal when it's actually very good/bad. This is the problem with doing ICM stuff only to the hand in question without thinking about how your actions in the hand affects the rest of the tourney.

1. really depends on how deep you are (and by how much you cover) and how deep the others are. If K5s is only a marginal shove there you're probably pretty deep and raising might be better.

2. is sort of the same thing. If you're getting walks all the time and table is really tight you're gonna get better than +.1% sngpt edges a lot so it's probably not worth shoving this.

But if even after considering things couple of hands forward and what sippin said you're sure it's a +EV even by 0.05% you should make it cos well it's +EV.

[AMT]

i didnt read through your post closely, but if a spot is marginally +EV it does not mean you should automatically take it. concepts such as preserving FE and manipulating their calling ranges as well as stack sizes are important implications on deciding when to pass up a push so you can beat up even more on people later. Players' calling ranges also change rapidly when the blinds get higher and they even consider a player to be pushing tighter/looser depending...all of these are important factors in both working with ICM based programs to improve play and decide when to take a thin edge and when to pass.

[BradleyT]

No. Once blinds get to 15/30 according to nash you can push your whole stack with like KTs from the button Linky...pushes like those have risk:reward ratios over 500:1 (pushing $11.39 in stack equity to win $.02 if the prizepool were $100). When blinds are high at the same buy-in some pushes may be worth $10+.

[CheeseMoney]

I fool around with the minimum edge function in SNGPT and SNGWIZ. At the buyins that I play at (less than 27), I want a .3 edge if I am considering shoving, unless we have some special circumstances, such as shoving utg with blinds about to ruin any fold equity near a bubble, guaranteeing your needing to hit a win in a 3 way pot or double up 2x to survive, etc. In these situations, you'll have to shove where you know you're shoving for -EV, but to wait would put you in an even bigger -EV situation. Another concern, your examples could be catastrophic if you had dialed in your opponents range incorrectly. Shoving into a bigstack when a shortie is likely to go bust soon is usually a big no-no. You have to figure that survival in some places will give your opponents opportunities to create -EV decisions, which is therefore one reason for factoring edge margin into your shoves and calls-- the other main reason being your inability to perfectly dial in a range. The general rule of thumb in a < 27 buyin for me has always been .3, I figure 27 or 60 would be .2, ~100 .1, and > 200 would be 0. I've seen several respected posters use those as a general rule, but you can argue over the details, while the basic premise still applies.

[Rek]

OP it is difficult to give definitive answers to hypothetical situations in SNG’s. They are all situation dependent. Without this and any reads who can say? In your examples you say you are 100% certain you are +EV and then imply that your holdings are rags. Well in this situation if you are 100% sure +EV then it is an instant shove because your opponent must have rags and cannot possibly call unless he is deaf, dumb and blind.

Play some SNG’s, get a feel for them and post some real examples where you are unsure.

[Webster]

I agree 100% with Finnisher

The problem with ICM is that you forget how to play poker. Poker is not 100% a math problem. So many times I know 100% I was +EV but I also know that by waiting others would panic and go out of the game.

Of course is you are a human poker bot playing 10 tables and do not actually WATCH the games ICM is great, you no longer have think and use your brain.