Tells vs Random chance

[cairpre]

(I first note that I am something of a poker novice, so my views are not those of an expert and are probably wrong.)

It seems to me that, with the exception of regular games, the sample size used when observing tells is probably to small to be statistically distinguishable from random chance.
I know they are part of the romance of the game. But studying them seems to have little practical value except to give us something to occupy our minds and perhaps to help us present a confident image at the table. Am I correct in this? Is it not more profitable to concentrate on aspects of the game? Thanks (my apologies if this really belongs in the beginner forum)

[Taso]

I use "tells" all the time when I'm playing poker. I only play live, so this is probably why, but its a huge part of my game. I am constantly making calls with extremly minimal hands, or making raises with them because I've seen some form of weakness in my opponent.

This could be that a player who I always see glance down at his chips when he's strong, stares at the flop on a hand and makes a continuation bet. Well, I can't be 100%, but it looks week. 8/10 I'm right, and that makes it profitable.

With some players, I've been able to follow their eyes so well that I'll know exactly what card on the flop they have hit.

Some players "chip shuffle" will speed up when they've hit a big hand, others might speed up when they are bluffing.

The point is, when you have a marginal decision to make, these extra things can help A LOT. Sometimes you'll be wrong, but as you get better, you'll find that more often than not, you are right. And it is very profitable.

As for it being more profitable to concetrate on aspects of the game...This is an aspect of the game, one of the important ones.

[Mike]

You need to go with what you feel is correct for you. We all excel in different areas, and tells are hard to pick up on for many people especially at the poker table when so many false tells may be given off.

One idea to keep in mind is you can not generally catagorize tells and apply them like you would say shirt color preference. Even with the same person, what was a valid tell an hour ago may not be valid at this moment. If you never worried about tells, you are not giving up a lot.

[ericishungry]

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It seems to me that, with the exception of regular games, the sample size used when observing tells is probably to small to be statistically distinguishable from random chance.

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Most tells aren't applicable to this. If you're referring to say someone coughing, then you could make a case that we don't know if he had a dry throat, a cold, good hand, etc. The most useful tells (shaking hands, eyes, chip placement, body language, etc) can be picked up pretty quickly. Someone's hand shaking when making a big bet is not a random occurrence, it means something.

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I know they are part of the romance of the game. Is it not more profitable to concentrate on aspects of the game?

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Learning sound strategy is much more important than learning to read tells at first simply because it can cost you a hell of a lot more money than missing out on a bet or a fold based on a read here or there. That being said, profit from tells is far from negligible once you are able to apply them correctly into your strategy. Tells won't help you win if you play twice as many hands as you should, but they can add a good chunk to your hourly.