Let's talk about Way Ahead/Way Behind (rather long)

[Bullet_Dodger]

Most people know the description of being Way ahead/ Way behind. For the few that dont, the concept is quite simple. Playing a hand way ahead/way behind means playing it soft in order to get more value from hands that are drawing to very few outs, and lose the least from hands that have you dominated.

For example, say you call a raise from EP on the Button with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. A common line to use against an aggressive or passive player is to check/call all the way down, or to check/call the first two streets and bet/fold the last.

This is more commonly discussed in Limit Holdem, but rarley discussed in NL Holdem MTT's. The main reason for this is because the stacks are usually shallow, and the right line is to often bet, bet, bet and get it all-in. However, I still think there are many situations where implying a way ahead/ way behind strategy will prove most profitable. Such situations occur when the stacks are deep compared to the blinds, and Hero is up against a certain type of opponent.

For example, a hand came up about a week ago in the same MTT i posted with the 75o hand. The blinds were 25/50, with ~350 players left of the ~500 that started. It was 9-handed, with effective stacks being 5k. Hero raised to 150 in MP, and CO flat calls. It is folded around. CO was a rather tight-passive player, who had managed to build up a decent stack through nut-peddling. However, he still seemed capable of making thin value bets when it was needed. Hero gave Villain's hand range at 55+, and all High broadways. Hero does not believe Villain would call a 3x bb raise with a really small pair.

The flop came Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero bets 250, Villain Calls 250.

This call was rather odd. I discounted KQ/QJ slightly, because I thought he would raise with such a hand. I also knew that given Villains description and the texture of the board, (no draws) Hero was either way ahead or way behind. He is way ahead of 88-JJ, KQ/KJ in order of most likley. He is also way behind 33/44, QQ, KK, and AA. I did not put Villain on 89 or 54 here, ever, I just dont think he'd make that call preflop.

The turn was the Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero checks, Villain bets 500, Hero calls.

Now to many this turn card makes it seems like we've hit the jackpot. We've hit teh ultimate trips!!11 In reality, after the bet by Villain, we have if anything only narrowed the amount of hands we're ahead here. I've now discounted 88 and 99 slightly, as I feel hed check behind with those more often. All other hands remain about the same.

River: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero checks, Villain bets 1,000, Hero calls.

Once again, Hero plays this hand passivley feeling hes way ahead/way behind. Many people will question why I did not raise here, but I still feel it was the right play. Villin is calling a raise here, which will be a push, with any hands that we have beat. When he calls, he has us. Almost every time. We of course are also never folding out a better hand, as that means a Full House or Quads.

Villian ended up showing T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and Hero rakes in a near 4,000 pot. I'm all up for opinions. Discuss.

[Bullet_Dodger]

Note: I rushed this in only a few minutes so I'm sure theres mistakes there. I'll edit it in a bit.

[IMUnaware]

One thing you might want to add: your starting hand in the example you provide...

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing you might want to add: your starting hand in the example you provide...

[/ QUOTE ]

obviously JJ

[seke2]

The board in your example has a number of draws, including a flush draw and some potential straight draws. While they certainly have to be discounted because of your reads, that really isn't a drawless board. I'd be more inclined to view the hand as truly WA/WB if you at least put a rainbow flop out there.

[Bullet_Dodger]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing you might want to add: your starting hand in the example you provide...

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The board in your example has a number of draws, including a flush draw and some potential straight draws. While they certainly have to be discounted because of your reads, that really isn't a drawless board. I'd be more inclined to view the hand as truly WA/WB if you at least put a rainbow flop out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. Here's a few mistakes I made ...

MEANT TO READ:

Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero holds A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Also: Hero is now ahead of AA/KK on the turn. He has discounted those a good margin, while still leaving them in the possible hand range.




Meant to be rainbow. Took care of that. Sorry, I rushed this and did not look at it twice. With no flush draws and Hero's read that Villain would not call with 89 or 54, this is as drawless as it gets.

[seke2]

Your turn analysis is weird then. Yes, you can now discount 88/99, but you're now ahead of AA/KK too. Maybe you're discounting those because he didn't reraise preflop, and that's fine. In any case, while I think your ranges are a little too tight for Villain in general, if that's your read, then you probably played the hand right since I'd say it fits mostly WA/WB. If you are discounting AA/KK because of preflop, and QQ isn't possible, and you're discounting a worse Q because he didn't raise the flop, that doesn't leave much in his range, just sets, JJ, and TT. I think, if anything, you are probably not giving enough credence to the possibility that you have a better queen, but I don't feel like doing the math to see if C/C is actually better than betting it out to maximize your value against Qx/JJ/TT.

[Bullet_Dodger]

[ QUOTE ]
Your turn analysis is weird then. Yes, you can now discount 88/99, but you're now ahead of AA/KK too. Maybe you're discounting those because he didn't reraise preflop, and that's fine. In any case, while I think your ranges are a little too tight for Villain in general, if that's your read, then you probably played the hand right since I'd say it fits mostly WA/WB. If you are discounting AA/KK because of preflop, and QQ isn't possible, and you're discounting a worse Q because he didn't raise the flop, that doesn't leave much in his range, just sets, JJ, and TT. I think, if anything, you are probably not giving enough credence to the possibility that you have a better queen, but I don't feel like doing the math to see if C/C is actually better than betting it out to maximize your value against Qx/JJ/TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I discounted KK/AA a good margin on the turn. Not all the way, of course, as many opponents will still play it this way.

The meat of the discussion I believe is on the river ... what is the best option. I believe its check-call, although I'd love to hear others refute this statement believeing that check-raise, leading out, or other options are more profitable.

[adanthar]

This is such a turn CR (or sometimes river bet) that it's not funny, and you left a ton of chips on the table vs. most of his hands.

This isn't even WA/WB. It would be if you held jacks (you see how durron says 'obv JJ'? That's because that's the hand your line makes perfect sense with.) With AQ, yes you lose to exactly two boats, but he is so much more likely to stack off to you with KQ, QJs, occasionally even aces etc. that you should be calculating optimal bet sizes for his entire stack on the flop, or at least the turn, easily.

edit: this is including your read. Yes, it means you only have #3 of his range of ~6-7 hands and should theoretically be more careful. But this is 25/50 in an online donkament. While it's possible to play it this way once in a while, you're being too cautious.

[Bullet_Dodger]

[ QUOTE ]
This is such a turn CR (or sometimes river bet) that it's not funny, and you left a ton of chips on the table vs. most of his hands.

This isn't even WA/WB. It would be if you held jacks (you see how durron says 'obv JJ'? That's because that's the hand your line makes perfect sense with.) With AQ, yes you lose to exactly two boats, but he is so much more likely to stack off to you with KQ, QJs, occasionally even aces etc. that you should be calculating optimal bet sizes for his entire stack on the flop, or at least the turn, easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

First off, on the turn, I still think I'm way ahead or way behind. Given Villain's description, he is not calling the turn check-raise with a majority of the hands I have beat. This includes 88-JJ, and a good portion of the time he is laying down KK/AA. I didn't lead out because If raised I don't know whether he's raising with a Q I have beat or a monster ... and I obviously have showdown value. I discounted KQ/KJ slightly because Villain would almost always raise with this type of hand, trying to see where he was on the flop. If he had raised the flop, this is the type of hand I would put him on and I would have obviously jammed.

note: this is not an online donkament. this is a live $100 tournament in which the Villain is tight/passive. (not extremley passive, but passive)