Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise

kdotsky · #1 07-20-2006, 12:42 AM

Stars $20 180-person tournament. I've been at the table 2 orbits and I don't think villain had played a hand yet. I've open pushed three times without getting called.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t2152)
UTG (t2375)
UTG+1 (t2750)
MP1 (t12965)
MP2 (t4510)
MP3 (t2555)
CO (t5820)
Button (t2680)
SB (t4210)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises to t600, 5 folds

If his range is 88+/AJo+/KQ I'm 44%. I may have a bit of folding equity of i push, but not likely. I think my options are fold or stop and go. Is 99 too good to fold here?

fasteddy1970 · #2 07-20-2006, 12:51 AM

I don't think you have fold equity here and with an M-7 you've got a tough decision. You'd rather be the first in with a big raise of push here but you've got a pretty good hand right now. If you call and fold on the flop, you're in pretty bad shape so I either push all in or fold here with a lean towards going all in. Tough situation and it comes up often for me. I'd be interested in reading the other responses. What did you do and how'd it work out.

kdotsky · #3 07-20-2006, 12:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you have fold equity here and with an M-7 you've got a tough decision. You'd rather be the first in with a big raise of push here but you've got a pretty good hand right now. If you call and fold on the flop, you're in pretty bad shape so I either push all in or fold here with a lean towards going all in. Tough situation and it comes up often for me. I'd be interested in reading the other responses. What did you do and how'd it work out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I have folding equity. Partly because of his pot odds, partly because of my image. When I first got to the table I pushed two hands in a row, I think he was one of the blinds for one or both of those two times, so he probably noticed.

If I don't have folding equity PF, and I'm not folding, I think calling and pushing any flop is what I should do. Please let me know if I'm incorrect about this (e.g. the flop push would be a bit of an overbet).

If I'm correct about the stop-and-go, the real question is whether or not folding is right. It almost seems it's so close that either would be fine.

nath · #4 07-20-2006, 01:21 AM

i would never fold, i might just push pf and take my chances

Supwithbates · #5 07-20-2006, 02:20 AM

this looks like an easy push to me. Then again, this same situation just happened to me literally 10 seconds ago. Button raised to 3BB, I had 7M in BB and 99, and pushed. He instacalled with QQ.

But that's only if you want to be results oriented [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Altreg · #6 07-20-2006, 02:33 AM

push

kdotsky · #7 07-20-2006, 02:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
this looks like an easy push to me. Then again, this same situation just happened to me literally 10 seconds ago. Button raised to 3BB, I had 7M in BB and 99, and pushed. He instacalled with QQ.

But that's only if you want to be results oriented [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that situation is very different (button raise), and is a clear push.

pineapple888 · #8 07-20-2006, 03:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i would never fold, i might just push pf and take my chances

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, I don't get it.

You are up against a player where your read is super-tight, as far as you know, who raised from around front. You have a hand that's either slightly ahead or way behind. Your pot odds are OK but not great. You are far from desperate yet. You have extremely limited FE. You are presumably better than your opponents so you want an edge.

Why wouldn't you just insta-muck this and find a better spot?

Matador225 · #9 07-20-2006, 04:35 AM

I think pushing is the worst option as we have no fold equity whatsoever. A stop n go is ok but with your read I think folding is probably best.

mornelth · #10 07-20-2006, 06:44 AM

Ugh.

I think I push because with that stack and those blinds I'm going to need to gamble sooner rather than later and 44% is enough of an equity to gamble. Part of the reason of why I gamble is that wining that "coinflip" gives me a stack that's twice as big as those of other 5 players at the table and will increase my ability to steal from them and will also increase my ability to steal from 3 other players who are in the 4k-6k range. So wi that said - combination of decent equity and strategic advantage if I win makes it a fairly easy push for me.