[NL100] Set mining turn into bluff, spew ?

[13_Xerxes]

Villain is a solid 18/16/5, 282 hands. I play a very solid 19/15/4.

He raised UTG, so I hope a big pair or AK/AQ and to hit my set, and I just call MP, hoping CO or the blinds will call too.
When he bets this flop, I want just that he folds (I can have a set on this board and I raised them almost always). He thought for a long time, and flat call.
I think he has a big PP and cannot call a second barrel oop, cause he knows I will shove the river always. And the 9 is a good card isn'it ?

Just spew, or good bluff [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] ?

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $99.00
BB: $105.90
UTG: $229.00
Hero (MP): $109.90
CO: $219.65
BTN: $33.30

Preflop: Hero is dealt 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $4.00</font>, Hero calls $4.00, 4 folds

Flop: ($9.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $7.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $21.00</font>, UTG calls $14.00

Turn: ($51.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $33.00</font>

[delta k]

That turn card is pretty bad for you. When he calls the flop raise he's going to have AJ or QQ+ here, IMO, and the turn helps his hand a little because draws didn't come in and 99 is not not a likely holding for us. I don't think he folds here because it's tough to put us on 99- 66 is about all that beats him and people have trouble laying down hands to 1 hand.

[napkins]

I'd fold it on the flop.

If you want to get tricky then float him, but this isn't the greatest flop for it.

[traz]

I might float, but the turn bet is spew as played. If he's calling your flop raise, he's probably shoving on the turn

[nevereverwin]

ZOMG. If I am UTG with JJ QQ KK AA I am almost allways take a stack a donk line here on turn so I think you are shiping your $$$ to him..

[dragonystic]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is a solid 18/16/5, I play a very solid 19/15/4.

[/ QUOTE ]

this made me giggle