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#1
09-10-2006, 04:53 PM
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AKs, facing a raise, and a push
Live Tournament at the Venetian. Hero has 17,000 chips. Average stack is about 13,000.
Blinds are now 300/600 with a 50 chip ante. We are now 9 handed, field of about 70, with 48 or so left. Fairly early still UTG+2 is fairly loose and aggressive. He has been donking off a lot of chips. MP2 is a slightly older asian man, who has been quiet, but seems newer to the game of poker. UTG+2 has about 14,000 chips, MP2 has roughly the same Preflop: Hero has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the SB 2 folds, <font color="red">UTG+2 raises to 1,200</font>, 1 fold, <font color="red">MP2 raises all-in</font>, folded to hero, Hero folds, and BB folds, as does UTG+2 Does anyone call this? I could see MP2 making this play with AQs, but not that likely. AA or KK is a possiblity as well and with a live UTG+2 still to act as well as the sb, I fold this. Given the size of the bet and the pot, I think this is a fold. Anyone disagree? 
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#3
09-10-2006, 08:09 PM
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Re: AKs, facing a raise, and a push
There are 48 people left in the tourney and there has been a bet and an All-in bet from a stack almost as big as yours. He's got to have a monster hand, most likely AA, but no worse than QQ or KK. If you were close to the bottom in chip count, then I could see making the call and hoping to double-up, but with a larger than average chip stack I would just fold in this spot.
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#4
09-10-2006, 08:17 PM
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Re: AKs, facing a raise, and a push
[ QUOTE ]
There are 48 people left in the tourney and there has been a bet and an All-in bet from a stack almost as big as yours. He's got to have a monster hand, most likely AA, but no worse than QQ or KK. [/ QUOTE ] Um, no he doesn't
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#5
09-10-2006, 09:25 PM
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Re: AKs, facing a raise, and a push
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] There are 48 people left in the tourney and there has been a bet and an All-in bet from a stack almost as big as yours. He's got to have a monster hand, most likely AA, but no worse than QQ or KK. [/ QUOTE ] Um, no he doesn't [/ QUOTE ] some range eh? rr all in. stack looks like it's going to need padding soon. The pot is juiced to flip here.
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#6
09-11-2006, 12:26 AM
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Re: AKs, facing a raise, and a push
This is an interesting spot, but I believe a fold is the correct play. No one has really posted any sound advice, its mostly just impulses. "I call right away!" "THis is a clear fold!" I am looking for more of an analysis. This is a big tournament, $550 buy-in, first prize is just over 11k.
They have some real pros playing in this tournament. MP2 range, it is very unlikely that he has worse that an AJ. AQ is possible, so is AK. AQ is less likely because he has a fairly healthy stack. It could be a pair. I don't think it is a pair smaller than 10s because the same reasoning applies, he has a healthy stack and hasn't been that aggressive. So anywhere from a pair of 10s to Aces. So if he has a pair, its a coin flip with me as a slight underdog. A few factors to consider 1. BB is still to act. It is unlikely, but he could pick up AA, KK, or QQ and call. (He will probably throw away QQ). 2. UTG+2 is still active. He may have AA, KK, or QQ and call as well. He was a looser player, so I think he will even call with JJ. On balance, this is a fold. MP2 said he had a big pair, and ppl grilled him and I think he finally muttered it was JJ. Why risk my tournament on a coin flip when I have a good size stack. Most of the value from AK comes from the Fold equity. If a pair of 2s raises you all-in and shows you that he has 2s, why take something that is 50/50 for all your chips?
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#7
09-11-2006, 12:54 AM
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Re: AKs, facing a raise, and a push
[ QUOTE ]
This is a big tournament, $550 buy-in, first prize is just over 11k. They have some real pros playing in this tournament. [/ QUOTE ] You probably should mention that in the OP. [ QUOTE ] Most of the value from AK comes from the Fold equity. If a pair of 2s raises you all-in and shows you that he has 2s, why take something that is 50/50 for all your chips? [/ QUOTE ] Most of the value of 27 comes from FE. AKs has a lot more value than just FE. With a healthy chipstack folding a hand that's 50/50 to win and heading for an imminent showdown is not a crime, however not everyone on this forum agrees with that philosophy (survivalist camp vs. accumulationst camp debate).
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#8
09-11-2006, 12:55 AM
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Re: AKs, facing a raise, and a push
What was MP2's and UTG+2's stack size? If they're around average and they're you describe, MP2's bet looks like QQ-TT, and I'd be inclined to fold since I'm a flip, I'm not desperate and I don't want UTG+2 doing something stupid. If they're smaller, MP2's range is probably wider, and I might be inclined to move in, push UTG+2 off his hand (if it's true he's been raising light), and justify the flip with the extra money ($3k or so?) in the pot.
I hate calling a big push with AK (I like getting the fold equity), but I'm also never that worried about AA or KK when I pick it up since it's 22 to 1 against that someone has AA or KK when you've got one of each in your hand. That's not to say I get stupid with it, I just am not so quick to give a guys credit for AA or KK when I hold AK. Without a good feel for it, I'd probably fold and wait for a better spot, but if either of those guy's was short, I'm moving in. Edmond
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#9
09-11-2006, 01:44 AM
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Re: AKs, facing a raise, and a push
Quick and dirty math of the likely cases:
When UTg folds pot is laying you 1.2:1 AKs vs QQ 46:53 so 46% equity AKs vs QQ (with an ace folded by utg+1) 42:57 so 42% equity AKs vs Aq 75:25 so 75% equity With both calling pot is laying you 2.14:1 AKs vs QQ vs JJ 40:43:17 so 40% equity AKs vs QQ vs AJ 39:53:8 so 39% equity AKs vs QQ vs AK 22:17:63 so 22% equity If anyone has aces your equity goes to about 7% and if someone has KK it goes to 30%. Just looking at pot odds and equity, I would call because you really have to be up against AA or KK, or a pair and AK to really be in bad shape and those holdings just aren't that likely given you have AK and the minraise / push. It's going to be chip ev to call because of the overlay and the times you get all in headsup against AQ. There's also the added equity of having a big stack. So I call here.
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#10
09-11-2006, 01:52 AM
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Re: AKs, facing a raise, and a push
[ QUOTE ]
Live Tournament at the Venetian. Hero has 17,000 chips. Average stack is about 13,000. Blinds are now 300/600 with a 50 chip ante. We are now 9 handed, field of about 70, with 48 or so left. Fairly early still UTG+2 is fairly loose and aggressive. He has been donking off a lot of chips. MP2 is a slightly older asian man, who has been quiet, but seems newer to the game of poker. UTG+2 has about 14,000 chips, MP2 has roughly the same Preflop: Hero has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the SB 2 folds, <font color="red">UTG+2 raises to 1,200</font>, 1 fold, <font color="red">MP2 raises all-in</font>, folded to hero, Hero folds, and BB folds, as does UTG+2 Does anyone call this? I could see MP2 making this play with AQs, but not that likely. AA or KK is a possiblity as well and with a live UTG+2 still to act as well as the sb, I fold this. Given the size of the bet and the pot, I think this is a fold. Anyone disagree? [/ QUOTE ] Mike Matusow's tip: "You never put a chip in with ace-king when you are the third one into a raised pot. Never. Ever. Ever. Never." link
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