JTs in the SB

[neeeel]

$1/$2 full ring

I am in the small blind with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

pre flop
2 calls, 6 folds, I complete, BB checks

flop comes 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
I check, 1 fold(timed out), UTG bets, UTG + 1 calls, I call

turn comes K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I check, UTG bets, 1 fold, I call

river comes J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I check, UTG bets, I ???

no reads

On the flop, i reckoned I could have the best hand, but would maybe be a call down situation, I also wanted to see what other players did, so I check called, am getting approx 6:1 with enough outs to cover that, although maybe i overestimated a bit?

on the turn, my outs have "improved", but maybe not enough to call, or only enough to chop a lot of the time? Maybe I should have folded here, since a T might be bad news for me, and I may already be behind.

on the river, i hit one of my outs, do i raise here, or just get to showdown as cheaply as possible.

[Landonfan]

Flop call is ok. Your expressed odds are bad, but any ace is paying you off if you hit.

Turn is a fold. You're getting 4.5:1, and you don't know how many of your outs are clean. At most, you have nine outs, and even that's a fold with the odds you're getting. Realistically, I'd only give you about 7.5, maybe 8 clean outs.

As played, I c/r the river. Just donk if you think he'll check behind a weak ace.

[Smurph64]

I donk it from sb with that flop personally. Questionable if that is right but in limped pot I am probably up against weak ace that will only call.

King gives a few more outs for you giving you nine. Pretrty obvious call.

River is a call if there is a ten or a queen on board but since there isn't its a raise, I don't put someone betting out holding Q10 here but just in case a call to the 3 bet if it comes.

If you are beat here mark what holdings UTG limps and leads with this flop.

[Smurph64]

yeah its a call on turn with 4.5 to 1 odds and only needing 4.1.

[Gap23Razor]

[ QUOTE ]
I donk it from sb with that flop personally. Questionable if that is right but in limped pot I am probably up against weak ace that will only call.

King gives a few more outs for you giving you nine. Pretrty obvious call.

River is a call if there is a ten or a queen on board but since there isn't its a raise, I don't put someone betting out holding Q10 here but just in case a call to the 3 bet if it comes.

If you are beat here mark what holdings UTG limps and leads with this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

nine outs? 4 Queens, yes; 2 Jacks, yes; 3 Tens, i am not so sure...a ten helps us but also completes a straight to anyone holding a Q...i believe we need to take away outs value for a ten to come up with a most likely estimate of our outs/odds...is there some other out i am missing? you disagree with reducing the outs assigned to a Ten? why? thanks

[Landonfan]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah its a call on turn with 4.5 to 1 odds and only needing 4.1.

[/ QUOTE ]
How did you get that result? I thought it was roughly 5:1 for nine outs, assuming we have that many.

[Buzz-cp]

check/fold the turn is pretty standard

[Xylocain]

Bet flop and hand plays differently.

[Smurph64]

outs 1-card 2-cards

2 22 12 - pocket pair to set
3 14 07 - single overcard to pair
4 10 05 - inside straight draw, two pair to full house
5 08 04 - one pair to two pair or trips
6 6.7 3.2 - unpaired to one pair
7 5.6 2.6 - set to full house
8 4.7 2.2 - open straight draw
9 4.1 1.9 - flush draw
10 3.6 1.6
11 3.2 1.4
12 2.8 1.2 - flush + inside straight draw
13 2.5 1.1
14 2.3 0.95
15 2.1 0.85 - flush + open straight draw
16 1.9 0.75 - flush + open straight draw + overcard
17 1.7 0.66 - flush + open straight draw + 2 overcards
18+ who cares if you don't bet it you shouldn't be gambling

Chart I use when I play have it beside my computer.
I assume it's right. It's paying off for me anyways.

The way to use the 2 bet number is a little tricky, basically its saying that with 2 cards to come you have to get those odds to continue.

Therefore h/u you want to calculate based on the assumption you will have two bets to make to complete. If its not heads up I rarely use the 2 bet number.

I put the opponent on having a weak ace. If he has A10 well he's a pretty weak player, as A10 UTG is a raise for all but the tightest nits and he is going to call anyways if he has it.

I could discount maybe 3 outs if I was paranoid and fold but with my style I avoid mub thinking as it makes me too timid. Heck he could have AJ and I am drawing 4.

No reads of course I can be wrong but I would need to see big nit stats here for me to include either of those holds in his limp status range.

What percent of players limps with those hands? Well according to my database.... between 2 and 5 percent.

1 in 20 a 10 beats me here if he is a nit. 5% is 2 outs. So that is 7 outs
for the sticklers. 5.6 to 1 is basic odds with 4.5 in the pot. So I need to make up 1.1 bets. He bets out half the time and calls a reraise. I get it back.

So its real squishy for the risk adverse crowd. What are the odds of this being both the 5% player group who limps with A10 or AJ UTG and holding those two hands?

If check/fold is pretty standard, I am glad I am not standard and still a winning player. Course as others including myself has said, bet on the flop and this hand plays much differenly.



I contend this is not a leak. Let the math gods destroy me again. I still call this turn.

I don't think its 2 outs worth of discount. Implied odds with less than that amount and its a call.

[milesdyson]

just because hand plays differently with a flop bet doesn't mean it's right to do so. 5-way i'd never bet flop. 3-way i'd rarely bet flop because someone's gonna bluff it. 4-way is a weird place tbh.

the turn is close but probably a fold. 4.5:1 and he can have AJ KJ J7s AT type hands. 6 outs is 6.67:1... if you river a Q i don't see c/ring > donking so you only have 1 bb to win for your rivered straight. also Ax may not oblige by bet/calling on a river J because now his kicker doesn't play. you need to be ahead and getting a free showdown sometimes for this to be a good call. don't forget rake is taking half a bet or so as well.

if he can have something like J9/J8 sometimes and check behind the river unimproved, the turn call is probably right.