Another Sit n Go Question

[David Sklansky]

50 30 20 Split

300-600 Blinds

UTG folds 1000 stack

Button folds 1000 stack

Small blind pushes 5300 total.

4700 to you. If you call you will have 900 left if you lose. Small blind is tight but smart. You have two kings.

[AAmucked]

I call here with KK and AA only, not AK or QQ. I really don't feel like doing the math here but it seems like the right move to make considering you'll lock up 1st 85+ percent of the time if you win

[The Dude]

Well if this is a close decision then I'm not nearly as good as I thought, because I don't even think twice about calling here.

[YTV]

[ QUOTE ]
Well if this is a close decision then I'm not nearly as good as I thought, because I don't even think twice about calling here.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Prodigy54321]

I'm not exactly sure what "smart" means here..

-he knows that we will be pretty tight here
-he knows that we will be VERY tight here

for KK though, none of this really matters...of course we're calling.

if we drop that to JJ or TT or AK, then we'll have to get into what we think he thinks of us..and probably get into the probable outcomes concerning the next few hands (if we fold) as well.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
Small blind is tight but smart. You have two kings.

[/ QUOTE ]

even if you're calling with as many as ~5-6% of your hands, the small blind should be pushing every hand.

since you think its a close decision with kings, the smart small blind is pushing every hand.

you have an autocall.

[stinkypete]

i believe you've claimed that you're one of the best short stack players in the world.

if you think this decision is close, that claim is laughable.

[RobNottsUk]

Not sure who that last comment is aimed at, or what it's meant to mean.

Perhaps the point is, that here there is no fold equity, the BB outstacks the SB, yet SB is pushing. Consistency with certain views in other threads, would suggest that the SB is going to be playing extremely tight, knowing the 'correct' strategy is to knock out the short stacks. So what basket of hands, is our clever SB on? I've seen SnG players argue for folding, all kinds of hands in situations like this eg) TT.

After all, those who see ITM as the goal, might be folding the SB here, without a big hand, rather than risk being bust out. Attacking the 'medium' stacks rather than the big stacks and all that.

If you lose the hand, then unfortunately you'll be All In on the next SB. The shorties have just enough to outlast you, unless the blinds are just about to rise.

However, I think if the SB had AA, generally a smaller raise (or smooth call limping) would be made to tempt a re-raise All In, and so I think the worst case is to be up against an Ace. Of course the SB is smart and may outplay us by deceptively Pushing with the nuts.

As a 70:30 favourite in the hand, I think roughly the TEV would be improved only very slightly by calling. The reason is the almost nailed on win of 50% prize pool for busting the SB, is mitigated by the need for some luck to make 20% of prize pool if you lose the hand.

So when you call, you want to see QQ ideally, not AK!

If SB follows ICM and knows the BB folds almost everything, then it's an easy call, against a loose raiser. You're going to be better than 75:25 too often to fold.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure who that last comment is aimed at, or what it's meant to mean.

[/ QUOTE ]

it was aimed at sklansky.

[Prodigy54321]

[ QUOTE ]
However, I think if the SB had AA, generally a smaller raise (or smooth call limping) would be made to tempt a re-raise All In,

[/ QUOTE ]

this is very true.

[ QUOTE ]
Of course the SB is smart and may outplay us by deceptively Pushing with the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

he wouldn't be smart if he is pushing AA to be deceptive here...there's almost no way that he could think we're playing that would make him want to push AA here.

I'm sure it will happen now and again, but I think it's rare a person would do conciously do that here, believing that anything but a push would be suspicious...our range is so narrow here anyway that if we're going allin when he pushes, we're going alling when he simply raises...probably more so in the latter case.

[ QUOTE ]
If you lose the hand, then unfortunately you'll be All In on the next SB. The shorties have just enough to outlast you, unless the blinds are just about to rise.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually I see the (post loss) chip stack sizes and blind positions as being somewhat beneficial to us...

perhaps my math is off, but I actually think that we can fold every so often in our next SB if there is a raise ahead of us...of course the two small stacks could fold out to our allin, but I don't think they'll both do that extrememly often..(agian, I'm not so sure about the dynamics of the next couple hands if we call and lose here)