Repeating losing hand - AQ

[Annette_15]

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I'm fairly sure open shoving is a lot better than folding here, especially if people are calling as tight as JJ+,AK. I'm doing the calculations as I write this but that's only 3% of hands which means 83% of the time you take down the blinds and the other 17% of the time you're 29% to win 3050, assuming you're called by someone who covers you.

.83 * 300 = 249
.17 (.29 * 3050 - .71 * 2750) = -181.56

So you win 67 chips on average by open shoving if the calling range of JJ+,AK is correct. The numbers are slightly different if you're called by bb/sb (it's more +ev if called by someone who doesn't cover you outside of the blinds) but it's never -ev against that calling range. Against a more reasonable calling range of 88+, AQ I'm fairly sure it's still +ev but not by so much and it's quite possible that it's actually completely unexploitable to open shove here.

That doesn't mean that open shoving is necessarily the most +ev play here though, and I think I would normally raise/call in a standard online tourney. If it was live then raise/fold might be an option but online I think it's pretty bad.

Unless the table was really tight I would say raise/call > shove >> raise/fold > fold.

Edit to add hand 2 is a very standard shove against 99.9% of players.

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Whats ur cut off range for shoving here then?