$3R flopped middle pair in BB with 14xBB

[black666]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1000 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 (t34113)
MP2 (t7900)
MP3 (t12973)
CO (t49947)
Button (t3900)
SB (t45720)
Hero (t13893)
UTG (t20480)
UTG+1 (t30263)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t1000, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t3300) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t2000</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t12793</font>

Just the standard $3R .. come out of the rebuy with a very good stack, lose a big pot against a donk as a 70/30 favorite and find yourself shortstacked in an awkward spot.

Is this push +EV or a spew?

[helter skelter]

I can't crunch the numbers but this kind of situation comes up frequently in a tourney, so I'd be interested to hear what others say.

My immediate reaction when faced with it is always that the bettor is trying to steal and that I have the best hand. But my memories seem to be that it always ends badly when I move in. Either the limper has a pair higher than mine and calls, or the bettor has what he is representing, top pair.

Even if he doesnt' have top pair, he might have a draw that makes him a favorite, like two high clubs, or a combo strait and flush draw and will call. Although you might be +EV in that situation, I think over the range of situations (top pair, A5, good draw), you probably aren't.


I don't know if folding is better than flat calling, but they are probably both better than moving in.