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  #31  
Old 12-01-2007, 06:55 PM
PokerFink PokerFink is offline
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Default Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting

[ QUOTE ]
To answer your question directly, I do not think that scouts/tools are irrelevant, and in fact, with minor leaguers, the scouts/tools are more important.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, basically, you think Billy Beane is wrong.
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  #32  
Old 12-01-2007, 06:55 PM
kyleb kyleb is offline
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Default Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting

[ QUOTE ]
I'd love to see an analysis of Vladimir Guerrero or Ichiro's swings and approaches to hitting.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is fairly interesting; Vlad is a rotational hitter much like most successful power hitters. However, you probably refer to his "swing away" attitude and his ability to make contact with pitches anywhere within 10 feet of him.

Vlad's (and Soriano's, to a lesser extent) ability cannot be taught - it is innate and it is superhuman. IIRC, Vlad has a high pitches seen per AB ratio, not because he takes a lot of balls, but because he fouls off a ton of pitches that are meant to get him out. Vlad is a rare case of a high-average, high-power, low-strikeout, low-walk player, which is basically impossible, yet he manages to do it.

Ichiro has two swings: One with runners on and one without. When he is leading off, his swing is very linear - he takes his hands straight to the ball in a similar fashion to Roberto Clemente:



This style of hitting leads to high contact percentage and low power. Of course, he is using it to get on base where he is a disruptive force on the basepaths.

With runners on, he switches to a more rotational style of hitting (but still has linear elements) to generate more power.
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  #33  
Old 12-01-2007, 06:56 PM
PokerFink PokerFink is offline
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Default Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting

[ QUOTE ]
An effective splitter is impossible to hit. An effective two-seam fastball cannot be hit out of the infield.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know it's outside the realm of this thread, but could you explain the split? I've always wondered about that pitch and why hitters flail so pathetically at it.
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  #34  
Old 12-01-2007, 07:00 PM
kyleb kyleb is offline
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Default Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To answer your question directly, I do not think that scouts/tools are irrelevant, and in fact, with minor leaguers, the scouts/tools are more important.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, basically, you think Billy Beane is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Billy Beane does not think stats tell the whole story. How could stats tell a story for a high school hitter, where the scorekeeper is usually a parent with major bias? How could stats tell the story of an NDFA from the Dominican Republic?

Moneyball made the A's office look like a bunch of scout-hating geeks, which is only true in comparison to the rest of the league. Jeremy Brown was drafted because he could control the plate; his flaw was he was fat. Scott Hatteberg was signed because he could control the plate; his flaw was that he was injured.

In a sense, the stats can only exist if the tools are present. No hitter with a garbage swing and poor tools will generate high walk and power numbers. That being said, focusing on what a hitter could do based on his "raw tools" and ignoring the fact he strikes out in 40% of his plate appearances and walks in 1% is equally stupid.
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  #35  
Old 12-01-2007, 07:02 PM
kyleb kyleb is offline
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Default Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
An effective splitter is impossible to hit. An effective two-seam fastball cannot be hit out of the infield.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know it's outside the realm of this thread, but could you explain the split? I've always wondered about that pitch and why hitters flail so pathetically at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any pitch that looks like a fastball but then does something else will [censored] you up royally. That's the long and short of it.
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  #36  
Old 12-01-2007, 07:07 PM
kyleb kyleb is offline
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Default Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Kyleb, great stuff!

1) I thought you were more into pitching than hitting, so it surprises me that you're a hitting coach and not a pitching coach. What gives?

2) What's your opinion on the Moneyball idea that tools/scouts are largely irrelevant and all you need is a player's stats?

(Also, does anyone else read his name as Kyleb (Ky-Leb) instead of Kyle B? Or am I the only idiot?)

[/ QUOTE ]

1) I love pitching, but over the last year or so, I've learned that I can pick up hitting a lot easier. It makes sense and is much easier to explain, study, and practice. I'll do a short bit on pitching later on as well.

2) That's not really the Moneyball idea, but I see why people get that feeling based on Lewis's book. I believe what a player has done (stats) is more important than what a player can do (tools), but too much reliance on stats will lead to the Blue Jays Syndrome - getting a ton of low-ceiling low-variance players in your farm system without any impact players.

Drafting mainly college kids with emphasis on what they have done rather than what they can do will lead to a farm system that produces a high percentage of players to make AAA/MLB, but a low percentage of All-Stars.

Drafting mainly high school / foreign kids with emphasis on tools rather than what they have done will lead to a depleted farm system that produces a low percentage of players to make AAA/MLB, but a higher percentage of All-Stars.

You need a blend of both to succeed.
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  #37  
Old 12-01-2007, 07:08 PM
PokerFink PokerFink is offline
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Default Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting

Re: Billy Beane

According to rwperu, a "two decade prospector": <font color="#666666"> "For example, in rookie ball, the weight is something like 99% scouting reports, 1% stats. For a 23yo at AAA the weight is closer to 50/50, maybe even 60/40 in favor of stats."</font>

Billy would say that, even for college players that aren't even too rookie ball yet, you don't need the scouts. They were drafting college kids based on stats with almost a complete disregard for scouting them.

We're not talking highschool kids here. We're talking college+. And for that age range, we have Billy Beane at 95%+ stats and our poster at "99%" scouting.

Edit: Ok just saw your post that you got in before this one, that makes a lot of sense.

Edit2: I was also under the impression that it went college --&gt; rookie ball --&gt; minors, although some people will jump a level. I vaguely remember reading about Swisher and Brown playing in rookie ball before getting into the minors.

And even still, rwperu was talking AAA not A ball, although I don't know how he would assign the %s at A. And regardless, there is obviously a big gap between his philosophies and that of Beane.
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  #38  
Old 12-01-2007, 07:09 PM
kyleb kyleb is offline
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Default Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting

College+ kids don't go to rookie ball. They go to various A levels of ball, so what rwperu said is still valid.

EDIT: Well, good college kids don't go to rookie ball unless it's short-season.

I would be willing to bet that Beane uses a lot more traditional scouting analysis than he has ever admitted.
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  #39  
Old 12-01-2007, 07:15 PM
bottomset bottomset is offline
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Default Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting

very interesting thread

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Joe Mauer
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  #40  
Old 12-01-2007, 07:22 PM
kyleb kyleb is offline
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Default Re: Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting

I would also like to take this opportunity to brag about my new custom-turned bats from NYStixs:

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