GoldenBears Week 1 NCAA picks

[GoldenBears]

Iowa State -3.5 vs Kent State, 5 units
Virginia -4 @ Wyoming, 5 units
Arizona +5.5 @ BYU, 5 units
Tulsa @ UL-Monroe, moneyline -146, 5 units
Akron -4.5 vs Army, 5 units
Iowa -10.5 @ Northern Illinois, 2 units
Iowa @ Northern Illinois, moneyline -500, 7 units
UNLV -7 @ Utah State, 2 units
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame, moneyline +130, 2.5 units

Total: 38.5 units

Save the other 60 units for game-day arbitrage.

[GoldenBears]

Total for week 1: 5-3-1
@ -104, -0.20 units

I played Cal for 5 units on the moneyline too, but I got that bet late and didn't post it here, so I won't count it.

Plays in so far for Week 2:
Temple -3 vs Buffalo 5 units
Oregon State -3 @ Cincinnati 5 units
New Mexico State + 7.5 @ UNM 5 units

[GoldenBears]

Final Week 2 Card:

Temple -3 vs Buffalo 5 units
Oregon State -3 @ Cincinnati 5 units
New Mexico State + 7.5 @ UNM 5 units
Georgia -4.5 vs South Carolina 5 units
UCLA -7 vs BYU 5 units
Missouri -6 @ Ole Miss 5 units
Washington +3 vs Boise St. 3 units


Total: 33 units

[GoldenBears]

Correction, Washington is 5 units as well - 7 plays at 5 units a play.

[hedgie43]

You are betting too many units per game. Very high risk of ruin, even if you are a proven winning capper.

[GoldenBears]

That is true, but not significant. That would be significant if my bankroll (10k) was a significant portion of my total investments, but its' not.

This is my 'high +EV / high risk' area of investment, so I'm willing to tolerate a 'very high risk of ruin.' (Which, to be honest is not literally 'very high' it's just high enough to be tangible.)


But yeah, rest assured, this is actually not the investment that I'm most excited about, I'll post more after the season.

[Tofu_boy]

GL goldenbears.

[hedgie43]

Fair enough. I'm heading up to Ft. Collins on Saturday so go Bears!

[GoldenBears]

I was thinking about going for the game, but couldn't get tickets in time. Are you a rugby fan? A bunch of my buddies here are on the team...

[hedgie43]

I think there are still tickets available. A few of my friends are driving out for the game. As for rugby, yeah I'm a fan and I used to play (thinking about playing again). I might know them if they are from Sacramento.