Manhattan real estate

[Tweety]

I'm an early 30s New Yorker who with a wife and a baby girl, and we're looking to buy an apartment sometime between now and mid 2008. We're looking at 2 bedrooms and classic 6's on the Upper East Side, which, sadly, means we'll have to pay no less than $1.5 million, and probably more like $1.8 to $2.3 mil.

To non-New Yorkers: I know how crazy these numbers sound, but consider also that a nice 2 BR rental in a nice building in a nice neighborhood is 6-8k a month minimum.

Commuting from the suburbs is out of the question for me. I get to work every morning by 6:30am, and I frequently have evenings out in Manhattan. There's no way I'm spending 2 or 3 hours a day commuting with my work load.

$1.5 to $1.8m would be no problem. $2 mio is doable but not exactly easy. $2.05 to $2.35 (my absolute max) is possible but would be mean a major cash crunch for us in '08. We could swing it, but it would mean we'd be absolutely cash-broke other than essentials. God forbid, if we had some sort of emergency, my parents are pretty well off so we'd be ok, but other than 401k's and a few coins shoved under the mattress here and there we'd basically have no money for anything other than our mortgage, maintenance, and a spending budget consisting of pretty much bare essentials. After '08 things would get easier, as we'd have a big tax refund on interest payments and another year-end bonus for me.

So that's my situation in a nut shell. My question is really for the New Yorkers on this site familiar with the Manhattan real estate market. Where do you see prices going in the next year? Would we be better off continuing to rent? I'm personally sick of renting- we're paying $5,300 a month for a 1,200 sq ft 1 BR, and now that we have a baby we really need a 2 BR. In my building (a nice building in a good neighborhood), 2 bedrooms start at 7k a month. I just cringe at the thought of paying that much in rent. At least by buying I own something that can appreciate in value and it's not all just money into the ground. Plus I get the deduction.

Does anyone know anything about the Manhattan real estate market that I don't already know?

[emon87]

I have no idea about the Manhatten housing situation, but I do have a question about it:

How much would a studio, a 1 BR, or a 2 BR apartment cost per month for someone working in the financial district and right out of college? I don't know what all the neighborhoods are, so pick one where a lot of similar aged/professioned people live.

[ThePost]

[ QUOTE ]
To non-New Yorkers: I know how crazy these numbers sound, but consider also that a nice 2 BR rental in a nice building in a nice neighborhood is 6-8k a month minimum.

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Yes, It for sure seems crazy to us outsiders. Wish I had more to add other then just my amazement of those numbers.

[edtost]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea about the Manhatten housing situation, but I do have a question about it:

How much would a studio, a 1 BR, or a 2 BR apartment cost per month for someone working in the financial district and right out of college? I don't know what all the neighborhoods are, so pick one where a lot of similar aged/professioned people live.

[/ QUOTE ]

assuming a doorman building in the financial district:

studio 2000-2500
1br 3000-3800
2br 4200+

Straight out of college, having a studio would be pretty rare, most people would be 'converting' a 1br to a 2 or a 2 to a 3 by putting a pressurized wall up and splitting the living room in half, and then having 1 or 2 roommates.

There are definitely a bunch of kids paying less and living in cheaper neighborhoods farther from work and subways (think east village or the eastern parts of murray hill) or in walkup buildings, as well as people paying a ton to live in the west village or around union square, so i guess the numbers above are kind of a median range of what 1st years would be paying, or maybe slightly above average.

edited to add: i'm in the situation you're asking about, and pay 1300 for my share of a true (not converted) 5br in the financial district. i think our total rent (split 5 ways by bedroom size) is 6200.

[MrBlue]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea about the Manhatten housing situation, but I do have a question about it:

How much would a studio, a 1 BR, or a 2 BR apartment cost per month for someone working in the financial district and right out of college? I don't know what all the neighborhoods are, so pick one where a lot of similar aged/professioned people live.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rents that my friends pay:

LES - $1700 for a studio w/ a pair of windows linked to the fire escape.

UES - $2.8k+ for 1 bedroom. No reason to live here if you're working downtown. $1800 for a tiny studio.

Penn Station area - $3k for 1 bedroom.

Midtown west (57th/8th-ish) - $2.2k for studio. Nice building, enough room for a living area and a bed.

[emon87]

Ugh. That sucks. Makes me want to stay in Chciago soooo much more.

What would be the cheapest I could reasonably get (with roommates) in a safe area that wouldn't be a stupid commute and be near other people my age and have some space?

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh. That sucks. Makes me want to stay in Chciago soooo much more.

What would be the cheapest I could reasonably get (with roommates) in a safe area that wouldn't be a stupid commute and be near other people my age and have some space?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the Upper East Side below 90th is your best bet. (Above 90 everything gradually starts getting a little ghetto, not necessarily unsafe, but just not as nice and you'll have a longer commute). I currently live on the UES and will be working in the financial district as well. The commute is a bit on the long side, but bearable and I really like the neighborhood. Tons of young people live in the area and there are lots of nice restaurants and expensive buildings that make the neighborhood look nice. With roommates you could probably get a decent 2BR or 3BR for 1400-1500 per person, but probably not in a doorman building (though I think that is totally unnecessary for someone out of college). You can definitely also find something more towards 1200 or 1300, but you'd have to start sacrificing space, niceness, or proximity to the subway.

Another possibility is the lower east side. I lived their last summer and it was an extremely easy commute to the financial district. It's also really close to a lot of good nightlife. The downside of that area, although it varies, is that it can be kinda dirty. You won't see as many really nice townhouses and such like there are on the UWS or UES, some buildings will have graffiti, etc. Also (semi-rant warning) I lived in the part of the LES close to Chinatown, which is pretty f'ing dirty. I think Chinese people either don't care or don't realize that you're supposed to put your trash out the night before it gets picked up and not leave it out for an entire week. Though you could get lucky and find a decent place a little bit closer to SoHo which is generally nicer.

Anyway, one could go on and on about NYC neighborhoods. If you're just out of college and living here for the first time, you're probably gonna have to make some compromises. Definitely allot at least a week, if you can, for apartment hunting. The NYC housing market preys on desperate people trying to find an apartment in one day.

[Phone Booth]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm an early 30s New Yorker who with a wife and a baby girl, and we're looking to buy an apartment sometime between now and mid 2008. We're looking at 2 bedrooms and classic 6's on the Upper East Side, which, sadly, means we'll have to pay no less than $1.5 million, and probably more like $1.8 to $2.3 mil.

To non-New Yorkers: I know how crazy these numbers sound, but consider also that a nice 2 BR rental in a nice building in a nice neighborhood is 6-8k a month minimum.

Commuting from the suburbs is out of the question for me. I get to work every morning by 6:30am, and I frequently have evenings out in Manhattan. There's no way I'm spending 2 or 3 hours a day commuting with my work load.

$1.5 to $1.8m would be no problem. $2 mio is doable but not exactly easy. $2.05 to $2.35 (my absolute max) is possible but would be mean a major cash crunch for us in '08. We could swing it, but it would mean we'd be absolutely cash-broke other than essentials. God forbid, if we had some sort of emergency, my parents are pretty well off so we'd be ok, but other than 401k's and a few coins shoved under the mattress here and there we'd basically have no money for anything other than our mortgage, maintenance, and a spending budget consisting of pretty much bare essentials. After '08 things would get easier, as we'd have a big tax refund on interest payments and another year-end bonus for me.

So that's my situation in a nut shell. My question is really for the New Yorkers on this site familiar with the Manhattan real estate market. Where do you see prices going in the next year? Would we be better off continuing to rent? I'm personally sick of renting- we're paying $5,300 a month for a 1,200 sq ft 1 BR, and now that we have a baby we really need a 2 BR. In my building (a nice building in a good neighborhood), 2 bedrooms start at 7k a month. I just cringe at the thought of paying that much in rent. At least by buying I own something that can appreciate in value and it's not all just money into the ground. Plus I get the deduction.

Does anyone know anything about the Manhattan real estate market that I don't already know?

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately, I don't see the price going down and I see mortgage rates going up. This is a bad combination for affordability. And if the rate goes down, that's likely to bring the dollar with it, which would significantly boost Manhattan real estate prices in dollar terms. At the same time, it may be financially imprudent to try to stretch one's budget for a nice place (when plenty of nice places are much, much cheaper) unless you have a very good reason to believe that your income will grow significantly (and most people overestimate the likelihood). Counting on a bonus nearly two years out is also somewhat questionable.

[Phone Booth]

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh. That sucks. Makes me want to stay in Chciago soooo much more.

What would be the cheapest I could reasonably get (with roommates) in a safe area that wouldn't be a stupid commute and be near other people my age and have some space?

[/ QUOTE ]

Brooklyn. You'd be looking at Prospect Heights or something like that, which would be a better commute to Downtown Manhattan overall than from UES.

Also, there are plenty of walk-ups with reasonable rent all over the city - people with entry-level jobs shouldn't expect to live in a luxury doorman building in a nice area.

[scott1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ugh. That sucks. Makes me want to stay in Chciago soooo much more.

What would be the cheapest I could reasonably get (with roommates) in a safe area that wouldn't be a stupid commute and be near other people my age and have some space?

[/ QUOTE ]

Brooklyn. You'd be looking at Prospect Heights or something like that, which would be a better commute to Downtown Manhattan overall than from UES.

Also, there are plenty of walk-ups with reasonable rent all over the city - people with entry-level jobs shouldn't expect to live in a luxury doorman building in a nice area.

[/ QUOTE ]

LES or East Village share is the way to go. It will be small, but right in the middle of everything. You won't be home much anyways. Murray Hill share if you really need more space but the area is less fun and you'll have a subway or cab ride to meet your friends out at night. Craig's List is by far the best way to find this.