I did it. And a Bet...

CarlosChadha · #1 07-05-2007, 05:49 PM

Well, as of playing 11,289 hands of .25/.50 I am officially a 0.01BB/100 winner! Amusingly, I have paid 95.65 in rake, which is about 1.7BB/100.

Time to move up to .5/1! On that note, I made a $100 bet last night, with Jeffage, that I would make $10,000 by next July 4th playing just razz on Full Tilt without making any more deposits or transfers. As of last night I had $60 in my FT account. Also, I get 30% rakeback, which counts towards the 10K. Who do you think is getting the best of it?

Carlos

SGspecial · #2 07-05-2007, 05:58 PM

Well at your win rate, and with a 60BB BR, you'd have to keep your standard deviation down to 1.3BB/100 just to have LESS than a 50% chance of going busto. I'll take some action on the same side as Jeffage please...

Alchemist · #3 07-05-2007, 05:59 PM

Is that to say you can turn $60 into $10K playing Razz alone (+ your rakeback)? i.e. you're not allowed to play other games to build your roll in order to be able to play higher stakes of Razz?

While I don't doubt your abilities at all, I like Jeff's side of the bet myself. That's a helluva lot of Razz to play in the next year without stabbing yourself in the face first (granted you did play 11K hands of 25c/50c).

And you're actually getting a full 30% in rb? Since you obv think you'll win the bet, what proportion do you predict rb will contribute to hitting the 10K mark?

skillzilla · #4 07-05-2007, 06:00 PM

jeffage has the best of it i think

Jeffage · #5 07-05-2007, 07:35 PM

Only $9,904.35 to go. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] If I somehow lose this bet, I'm certainly going to get my money's worth!

Jeff

Jeffage · #6 07-05-2007, 07:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Is that to say you can turn $60 into $10K playing Razz alone (+ your rakeback)? i.e. you're not allowed to play other games to build your roll in order to be able to play higher stakes of Razz?

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Jeff

Andy B · #7 07-05-2007, 08:04 PM

I don't like either side of this bet, really. If you're stubborn enough to "prove" that you're a winning player at $.25/.50 razz, then you're probably stubborn enough to do whatever it takes to win this bet, no matter what it costs you in expectation. You'd probably make more per hour overall working for Arby's.

If Jeff is getting $100 in entertainment value out of this then it's a good bet for him. If it's keeping you out of his games, it's probably money well spent. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

electrical · #8 07-05-2007, 08:16 PM

If you grind for a couple months and keep your eyes peeled for one of the rare big games with Huck Seed and a sucker you could stick your whole roll in the game and do the final lap in about 45 minutes.

I like Carlos's side.

CarlosChadha · #9 07-05-2007, 08:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like either side of this bet, really. If you're stubborn enough to "prove" that you're a winning player at $.25/.50 razz, then you're probably stubborn enough to do whatever it takes to win this bet, no matter what it costs you in expectation. You'd probably make more per hour overall working for Arby's.

If Jeff is getting $100 in entertainment value out of this then it's a good bet for him. If it's keeping you out of his games, it's probably money well spent. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind that this bet is mostly for entertainment value for me (and a little to motivate me to get good at razz). Obviously from an EV stand point any time I spend playing razz is -EV since I make about $80/hr playing 40/80 stud. But then again, pretty much any other activity I do in life is -EV when I think about all the time I could be playing poker. All I have to do is look at all my friends who never went to college who are now making huge cashes in the WSOP while I sit at home struggling to finish my thesis to realize how much money I could have right now, if I cared very much about the money, which I don't;-) For that matter, anyone who plays any poker game other than NL holdem is costing themselves money, because that is where all the highest EV situations are these days.

Carlos

Andy B · #10 07-05-2007, 08:34 PM

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For that matter, anyone who plays any poker game other than NL holdem is costing themselves money, because that is where all the highest EV situations are these days.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless of course you suck at NLHE. Or if you don't play online and there are no NLHE games where you live.