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#11
05-25-2007, 01:39 AM
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Re: $16s - 200/400, interesting bubble hand against a good reg
[ QUOTE ]
Button's play here is absolutely terrible. You should fold if the BB will always showdown. [/ QUOTE ] its not that bad if he thinks the random sb will push and bb will call and then he can fold. Otherwise its likely the sb just keeps folding until the button is allin and forced to win a hand, this way he forces the SB to get allin before him since most randoms won't think the button can fold and just raise allin here i think. 
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#12
05-25-2007, 01:44 AM
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Re: $16s - 200/400, interesting bubble hand against a good reg
Yeah but our equity is pretty good even in that case. If the BB always calls, we will have about 30% equity when we win so that comes out to ~18% if we win 60% of the time. Folding is worth 17.6% if the button wins 60% of the time against the BB. So if it is +EV for us to push and it is +EV for the BB due to the better pot odds then it has to be -EV for the button.
If he shoves he is up at about 14% equity. If he raises and folds he is down in the 8-10% range. A3o is about 56% equity against a random so pushing is only worth 16.8% if the BB always calls and the button folds. So you are better off folding as long as the BB won't fold PF or on the flop.
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#13
05-25-2007, 09:13 AM
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Re: $16s - 200/400, interesting bubble hand against a good reg
i fold this for a couple reasons
1)i dont think we are that ahead of pusher's range here 2)BB has to call, and if he wins its great, but even if he loses it isnt too horrible because we can shove pretty wide next hand from the button
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#15
05-25-2007, 01:24 PM
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Re: $16s - 200/400, interesting bubble hand against a good reg
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not in love w/ Albatross' min-raise/fold. Anyone just open shove? [/ QUOTE ] minraise > openshove > villians play and i mean minraise call obv
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#16
05-25-2007, 02:22 PM
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Re: $16s - 200/400, interesting bubble hand against a good reg
I spoke with him (albatross) yesterday and he said he had a crap hand (like J5) and thought hero would call after his fold. He was prob multitabling and didn't know kevin was good, so I don't think it was a terrible play. Do you really think most average $15's players fold after villain's fold in this situation?
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#17
05-25-2007, 02:35 PM
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Re: $16s - 200/400, interesting bubble hand against a good reg
I like your reasoning, I just hate your call. I think that open folding here is the better play with big stack on the BB. He is sure to call with ATC. Let him take care of the button.
I think that the chips that you give up in this play are too valuable if Button ends up winning the hand.
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#18
05-25-2007, 03:09 PM
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Re: $16s - 200/400, interesting bubble hand against a good reg
[ QUOTE ]
I like your reasoning, I just hate your call. I think that open folding here is the better play with big stack on the BB. He is sure to call with ATC. Let him take care of the button. I think that the chips that you give up in this play are too valuable if Button ends up winning the hand. [/ QUOTE ] If he wins this hand I basically take the bubble.. but thats the point of making it a multiway pot, so he has to beat us both for it to be me in 4th instead of him.
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#19
05-25-2007, 03:19 PM
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Re: $16s - 200/400, interesting bubble hand against a good reg
[ QUOTE ]
I spoke with him (albatross) yesterday and he said he had a crap hand (like J5) and thought hero would call after his fold. He was prob multitabling and didn't know kevin was good, so I don't think it was a terrible play. Do you really think most average $15's players fold after villain's fold in this situation? [/ QUOTE ] J5? hahahahaha what an idiot. fold PF. hahaah wow. thats terrible.
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#20
05-25-2007, 03:23 PM
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Re: $16s - 200/400, interesting bubble hand against a good reg
He has to call the push in this case. He has about 30% equity if he wins so that gives him about 10% if he assumes he is even money. ICM puts his equity at about 6% after this debacle but it figures to be much less in a real scenario. You can calculate each scenario individually but in all cases it is roughly equal to $EV(3rd) / 2n(times all-in) * 2/3
In this case he will have to play AI twice before we do so his equity comes out to 20% * 1/2 * 1/2 * 2/3 = 3.3% Let's say that he shoves in the next hand and gets 3 callers. His equity in that case would be 20% * 1/4 * 2/3 = 3.3% (he wins the main 25% of the time and we lose the side 67% of the time). It is actually a bit higher in this case but it is essentially neg. In the case of 2 callers it would be 20% * 1/3 * 1/2 = 3.3% so you see where this is going. The correct play is either push or fold in some combination (anywhere from 20-50% push dependning on certain factors). Limping is somewhat better then min-raise/folding but it is clearly the wrong play as well. Sorry but anyone who does this is an idiot. A good player won't do this one time in 100,000.
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