Pushing the Marginal (PP vs Overcards)

[TJO]

[ QUOTE ]
Where did you get the 50% from?

[/ QUOTE ]It prolly makes no sense since you're still asking about it.

The point is that when we bet we need to be sure that the villain will call more often with hands that we beat than with hands that beat us. Otherwise we're taking an unnecessary risk by betting. Obviously we're never getting a better hand to fold. Some % of the time villain might also c/r.

[Zeldark]

So you're saying that our bet on the end has nothing to do with the pot odds? Just a raw 50% then?

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
So you're saying that our bet on the end has nothing to do with the pot odds? Just a raw 50% then?

[/ QUOTE ]

In position value betting is easy, and has nothing to do with pot odds. HPFAP puts out 55% as the percent of time you need to expect to be ahead when you are called.

One of the following will happen if you bet:
a) Villain will fold
b) Villain will call
c) Villain will raise

If villain folds, you either
1) Win a whole bonus pot if villain folds a better hand
2) Gain nothing EXTRA because you had the best hand and villain didn't pay you off.

Since we're talking about value betting, we're not folding out better hands. So it doesn't even factor into our calculation. We cannot possibly win anything extra if villain is going to fold. This is the reason for the WHEN YOU ARE CALLED clause.

If villain calls, you either
1) Win an extra bet if you have the best hand
2) Lose an extra bet if you have the worst hand

If you are ahead 50% of the time, then you win 1 BB 50% of the time and lose 1 BB 50% of the time. A quick EV calculation shows that this is EV = 0. So if you're ahead more, you win, and if you're behind more, you lose.

If villain raises, we have a decision to make. The extra 5% is a bit of a buffer for when this happens. Sometimes pay off, and sometimes fold. It just depends.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
So you're saying that our bet on the end has nothing to do with the pot odds? Just a raw 50% then?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's talking about the Villan having to call with a worse hand 55% of the timne to make it a value-bet. If SB is the kind of terrible that calls with anything, your action really hasn't anything to do with potsize, you should be betting here with any made hand. If he's the kind of terrible that limps all the way through with AA just so he can be "tricky" and "cool" and raise the river with AA, but will call all the way with A-high and fold when he misses on the river, then you should check behind.

And, babar:

[ QUOTE ]
it's good metagame for us to make this bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many times does it have to be said? Against a table full of players that took the short bus to the game, "metagame" considerations should never enter into your thinking. Either they aren't paying attention or they're always going to draw the wrong conclusions from your actions.

[Zeldark]

Excellent.

[Gary Frates]

Maybe SB has a piece of the flop or a medium to small pr. But you came on strong preflop so if he has something like 10x or Qx, he may be fearing you have AQ or TT or other high pr.

I guess I would bet the river and if I was reraised consider the player to call or fold.