Theoretical Question---One Pot Sized bet left

[JasonP530]

This is a situation that comes up frequently, perhaps not at the limits I play, but higher I am sure of it. I wanted some feedback and thoughts on what can be done to avoid this spot and how to play it.

Assume 150BB stacks for both you and villian.

2 limpers and blinds complete. Flop is Q92 no suits and you have top set. villian pots(4) and you raise to 16 bets total and villian calls. Pot is 36 bets. Turn is a 5 bringing backdoor flush draw. Lets say you pot it here and villian calls. You will have 96 bets behind, and the pot is 104 and there are so many scary rivers.

What can be done to mitigate the fact that many rivers are scary and that you will have to dodge a lot of cards on the river. This was a fairly benign example, as there was no flush draw on the flop, and there werent as many straight draws as could be possible. Should you be controlling the pot size so that you have to make a lesser decision on a dangerous river?

Thanks,
Jason

[bengali]

giving your opponent a free card on the turn is not an option. you have position on river so play the player if a scarecard hits, call if villain is LAG enough to set up a bluff. check it through if he checks the scary card.
The scariest scarecards are the wrappers so be less inclined to call them.

[RoundTower]

Betting less on the turn doesn't mean you have a lesser decision to make, it will still be a pot sized bet so you will still be getting the same price. If anything you have a tougher decision to make because villain's range is bigger. Think about it this way - you have top set the nuts on the turn on this board and you are in position and there are 104BB in the pot, would you rather you were playing 10-20PL or 1-2? Of course you will face a smaller decision in absolute turns playing 1-2, but your equity is 10 times greater here if you are playing 10-20.

[LA_Price]

What you should do to mitigate this is learn the tendancies of your opponents. You are right in assuming that they can sometimes get the best of it if you have current nuts but plan to pass any scary river card.

Basically againsyt some opponents you are just going to have to occasionally call some scary rivers when they bet. You will end up looking stupid some of the time and like a genius the other times but the goal is to be right as much as possible. Learn what hands they like to raise with and how they play their draws and made hands. When you are drawing you should often pick some cards to bluff at. Alternatively when someone is drawing against you and you know they will bluff at some draws that hit that they don't have you should pick a few cards to call on. This is all just a big game theory question really. Use betting patterns, tells, your experience, poker tracker and feel really to develop plans against certain opponents.

As to the exact scenario you asked when you have top set on drawish board. I would make the pot big there because the hand is pretty strong. If river is a scary card know your opponent. Bet against passives, check call loose aggressives occasionaly, and check and hope for a free showdown against weak predictables.