Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > General Gambling > Probability

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-29-2007, 04:38 AM
cmoneymaker10 cmoneymaker10 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 82
Default farha vs PA, hsp episode 14

on the last hand of hsp, farha has KQdd vs antonius with j9 on a 953 flop with 2 diamonds, a 53-47 favorite. they ran it 4 times and PA won 3. however, would it be in PAs advantage to run it as many times as possible, since if farha hits his flush he runs out of the suits for subsequent turns+rivers? or does it not matter at all.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-29-2007, 04:52 AM
tshort tshort is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 1,143
Default Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14

With only only the given information it does not matter.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11-29-2007, 08:20 AM
punter11235 punter11235 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Check out my blog
Posts: 3,239
Default Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14

Running it 2/3/4/5/n times does not change EV of the play.
It lowers the variance though which is often in interest of both players. This is why they often choose to do it.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 11-29-2007, 02:38 PM
thrasher789 thrasher789 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 327
Default Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14

running it a million times would still not change the probability that Farha wins it 53 percent of the time and Patrik wins it 47 percent of the time
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 11-29-2007, 11:18 PM
Troll_Inc Troll_Inc is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: FGHIJKLM STUVWXYZ
Posts: 2,566
Default Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14

[ QUOTE ]
Running it 2/3/4/5/n times does not change EV of the play.
It lowers the variance though which is often in interest of both players. This is why they often choose to do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

it doesn't even lower the variance that much.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 11-30-2007, 12:46 AM
ddubois ddubois is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Ewa Beach, HI
Posts: 3,647
Default Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14

[ QUOTE ]
it doesn't even lower the variance that much.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd like to see you try to present an argument for this claim.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 11-30-2007, 01:36 AM
Troll_Inc Troll_Inc is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: FGHIJKLM STUVWXYZ
Posts: 2,566
Default Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it doesn't even lower the variance that much.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd like to see you try to present an argument for this claim.

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically just look at the first graph here:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=1#Post12336590

And that's not running it twice, but each big hand a thousand times - enough to reach the real EV of big all in hands.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 11-30-2007, 11:48 AM
rufus rufus is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 425
Default Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14

[ QUOTE ]
it doesn't even lower the variance that much.

[/ QUOTE ]

As the number of times things are run increases, the replacement/no replacement issue becomes a bit more significant. Regardless, as the number of times run goes to infinity, the variance to due to the river card goes to zero very quickly.

On the other hand, variance due to holdings and play style is unaffected.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 11-30-2007, 08:40 PM
Troll_Inc Troll_Inc is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: FGHIJKLM STUVWXYZ
Posts: 2,566
Default Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14

[ QUOTE ]

Regardless, as the number of times run goes to infinity, the variance to due to the river card goes to zero very quickly.


[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? As something goes to infinity quickly? Your post doesn't make any sense.

In any event the variance of these sorts of all-ins DO NOT go to zero _quickly_.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 11-30-2007, 09:32 PM
sixhigh sixhigh is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Highway 61
Posts: 1,778
Default Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14

I don't get it Troll, you post a lot here and obviously have no idea what you're talking about. wtf?

Of course the variance approaches zero with many runs.

Say you have a $100 pot, are all-in and have 50% equity. If you run it once you will have a variance of 2,500 (or SD of $50). If you run it twice you will have a variance of 417 (SD=$20). And if you run it 4 times you will have a variance of 125 (SD=$11).
And that looks pretty quick to me.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:17 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.