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  #81  
Old 11-28-2007, 11:10 AM
Rick Diesel Rick Diesel is offline
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Default Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!

[ QUOTE ]
2 point conversion is from the 2 and a half yard-line.
I believe the ball was inside the 1 on this play.

I don't know if they were 75%. But they definitely had to be better than a 50% 2-pt conversion rate because of just having the QB or RB dive into the pile for the score which really isn't a realistic option from 2+ yds out.

[/ QUOTE ]

The conversion happens from the 2 yard line, not the 2.5.
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  #82  
Old 11-28-2007, 12:20 PM
tuq tuq is offline
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Default Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!

The fact is this is the Cardinals we're talking about. And the reason their kicking a FG is a better idea is that they no doubt would have run some retarded complicated sweep or possibly even a draw play for no good reason and probably lost 3-4 yards, game over.

EDIT: I am not joking, it would actually happen this way.
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  #83  
Old 11-28-2007, 12:30 PM
DesertCat DesertCat is offline
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Default Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!

Billy,

Thanks, that's good stuff. 65% in overtime is unlikely in general, but its possible that Whiz thought he was close to it given the dynamics of this game (warner over 400 yards). My point was that posters seem to think OMG, the stupid coach didn't make an obvious right call cause he was afraid of criticism. What I know of Whiz is he's the type of coach who is aware of these percentages, is willing to take smart risks even if it makes him look dumb, and that the excess EV from going for it is murky at best.
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  #84  
Old 11-28-2007, 06:08 PM
vhawk01 vhawk01 is offline
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Default Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

How much smaller of an area do they have to defend? On what planet is there a 4th and 1 from the 50 and there are NOT 8 guys in the box? I really dont get this. Yeah for some teams they have to respect some TINY chance of them throwing a deep bomb. But that doesnt mean they are lining guys up 20 yards down field or putting 6-7 guys in the box. There are always 8 in the box, safeties are always up, and no one is more than 11 or so yards from the LOS.

[/ QUOTE ]

Find some 4th down from the 1 yard line stats and show me I'm wrong. But I maintain there is no way the safeties and cornerbacks can commit to the line of scrimmage on a 4th and 1 in the middle of the field, like they can when just defending the end zone. It's far from a tiny risk, there is no CB in the league who can let Bolden or Fitz get behind them without giving up a free touchdown from anywhere on the field.

I'll say this one more time to make myself clear. I will bet Wiz knows the odds better than anyone on this thread. He adjusted for some in game data, like the effectiveness of his line and the Forty Niner's goal line defense, and his estimate of the Card's likelihood of winning in OT. He'd already gone for it once on 4th down at the one, so he had some insight into the likely SF defense. And he'd already call a pass play with 6 seconds left that could have ended the game on an incompletion, interception or a fumbled snap, so he wasn't that afraid of looking stupid.

Anyone who has actual stats likely can't make the case that there was anywhere near a 25% better chance of winning in regulation by going for it. My guess is it is no more than a 5% difference at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, the fact that like 99% of the time, for any coach, they are ALWAYS kicking the FG in this spot, detracts a little bit from your conjecture about how Wiz was taking into consideration all of the game-specific variables and his team percentages and came to the conclusion that kicking the FG was...well, still like a 5 or 10% hit on his win%, which isnt that great since its STILL wrong, but thats not my point. If sometimes coaches kicked and sometimes they didnt, I might believe you that this coach took into consideration things that we dont know about and was actually making an intelligent decision. The fact that coaches NEVER go for it here, regardless of circumstances, makes it a lot more likely that Wiz was just doing what every other coach does in this spot.
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  #85  
Old 11-28-2007, 06:40 PM
gusmahler gusmahler is offline
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Default Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that coaches NEVER go for it here, regardless of circumstances, makes it a lot more likely that Wiz was just doing what every other coach does in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]As I posted before, just this season, the Cards have gone for it twice in the same position in the first half. (4th and goal from the 1 with 6 seconds left in one game, an untimed final play of the half from the 1 (due to a defensive penalty) in the other game.)

Obviously, there's a difference between end of the half and end of the game. But he still would have been criticized had he missed in those two earlier situations, but went for the TD anyway.
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  #86  
Old 11-28-2007, 07:18 PM
DesertCat DesertCat is offline
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Default Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!

My conjecture is based on interviews with Wiz and his track record, not the track record of coaches who aren't Wiz.
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  #87  
Old 11-28-2007, 08:40 PM
MinRaise MinRaise is offline
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Default Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

How much smaller of an area do they have to defend? On what planet is there a 4th and 1 from the 50 and there are NOT 8 guys in the box? I really dont get this. Yeah for some teams they have to respect some TINY chance of them throwing a deep bomb. But that doesnt mean they are lining guys up 20 yards down field or putting 6-7 guys in the box. There are always 8 in the box, safeties are always up, and no one is more than 11 or so yards from the LOS.

[/ QUOTE ]

Find some 4th down from the 1 yard line stats and show me I'm wrong. But I maintain there is no way the safeties and cornerbacks can commit to the line of scrimmage on a 4th and 1 in the middle of the field, like they can when just defending the end zone. It's far from a tiny risk, there is no CB in the league who can let Bolden or Fitz get behind them without giving up a free touchdown from anywhere on the field.

I'll say this one more time to make myself clear. I will bet Wiz knows the odds better than anyone on this thread. He adjusted for some in game data, like the effectiveness of his line and the Forty Niner's goal line defense, and his estimate of the Card's likelihood of winning in OT. He'd already gone for it once on 4th down at the one, so he had some insight into the likely SF defense. And he'd already call a pass play with 6 seconds left that could have ended the game on an incompletion, interception or a fumbled snap, so he wasn't that afraid of looking stupid.

Anyone who has actual stats likely can't make the case that there was anywhere near a 25% better chance of winning in regulation by going for it. My guess is it is no more than a 5% difference at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, the fact that like 99% of the time, for any coach, they are ALWAYS kicking the FG in this spot, detracts a little bit from your conjecture about how Wiz was taking into consideration all of the game-specific variables and his team percentages and came to the conclusion that kicking the FG was...well, still like a 5 or 10% hit on his win%, which isnt that great since its STILL wrong, but thats not my point. If sometimes coaches kicked and sometimes they didnt, I might believe you that this coach took into consideration things that we dont know about and was actually making an intelligent decision. The fact that coaches NEVER go for it here, regardless of circumstances, makes it a lot more likely that Wiz was just doing what every other coach does in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

1-10-OAK 37 (:19) T.Green pass to L.Johnson to OAK 1 for 36 yards (N.Asomugha).
Timeout #3 by KC at 00:05.
Timeout #1 by OAK at 00:05.
1-1-OAK 1 (:05) L.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
L.Tynes extra point is GOOD, Center-K.Gammon, Holder-D.Colquitt.

This happened in 2005, Chiefs were down 23-20 at the time. Vermeil was lauded for his "gutsy" call.

link

FWIW, I agree with the general premise of your post.
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  #88  
Old 11-30-2007, 05:16 PM
MyTurn2Raise MyTurn2Raise is offline
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Default Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!

all this and no one got on the Whiz or Rich Brooks for playing for a FG in OT...sigh
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  #89  
Old 11-30-2007, 05:21 PM
vhawk01 vhawk01 is offline
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Default Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!

[ QUOTE ]
My conjecture is based on interviews with Wiz and his track record, not the track record of coaches who aren't Wiz.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know this. And yet my point is the same. The fact that coaches never go for it here (the exception that proves the rule aside) somewhat counters whatever Whiz happens to say in any interview. We cannot take him at 100% face value no matter what he says when he still does what all the other coaches do.

And no, gusmahler, first half decisions are nothing like second-half decisions. We all know that the last points are worth a million times more than the first points, in the media and to the fans. Dropping 5 TD balls in the first half but making the game-winning catch isnt even a wash, its lauded.
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  #90  
Old 11-30-2007, 05:22 PM
vhawk01 vhawk01 is offline
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Default Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!

Also, has Whiz et al ever gone for two after scoring a TD down by 14? If he has done that a few times, then I'm willing to get on board the "Whiz is one of the few coaches who actually cares about maximizing wins no matter how unconventional it might be" bandwagon.
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