|
|
#31
11-14-2007, 06:46 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title
Naj, I don't even think Az St will beat USC.
I will give you Az St at pick 'em in that game if you want. The chances of Az St even making a BCS bowl is low, so it's pointless to talk about it. 
|
|
#32
11-14-2007, 06:48 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title
[ QUOTE ]
I'll take AzzuSt str8 up versus, as you said, any B12 team right now at Even for any amount you want up to $1k...A 'yay' or 'nay' is fine. [/ QUOTE ]
|
|
#33
11-14-2007, 06:52 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title
Not talking about BCS bowl, Oak. Any bowl, I figure they do not make the BCS since Oregon should get the invite.
ASU has QB injury problems that may not be 100% by then, [but likely will be by Jan] so I must respectfully decline your quite generous offer. I don't like Rudy with a bad thumb v USC's Def so I must wait and see. Sorry for the hijack. My point remains that LSU will be bigger faves v All-but-Ducks imho.
|
|
#34
11-14-2007, 06:53 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title
[ QUOTE ]
Hey Naj, I'll take Kansas or Oklahoma vs. Arizona State for $500 assuming they meet in a bowl game. Deal? It should be +EV for you if the Big XII's as bad as you say. [/ QUOTE ] Just be careful what strings he attaches. He seems to want to bet on an 11-1 Az St playing against a Big 12 team. The Big 12 champion, if it does not make the BCS title game, will automatically be in the Fiesta Bowl. That game is in Arizona of course. Also, if Az St loses to USC (or Arizona), then they are not gonna wind up playing a #1 or #2 Big 12 team. He says Az St is better than Missouri, Oklahoma and Kansas, but the prospective game will only come off if Az St runs the table, and could be in AZ. That's why I wouldn't take that bet. If any of those 3 teams could play Az St on a neutral field tomorrow, I would take any of them at pick 'em.
|
|
#35
11-14-2007, 06:58 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title
[ QUOTE ]
My point remains that LSU will be bigger faves v All-but-Ducks imho. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I understand your point. I don't think that is true, because a Big 12 team which makes the BCS title game will have to have run the table. They all have very tough remaining schedules. Still, now that I think about it, it is possible that LSU will be bigger than a -3 favorite versus anyone other then Oregon. My reasoning is different though, because the BCS title game lines seem to give the favorite too much credit.
|
|
#37
11-14-2007, 07:13 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title
[ QUOTE ]
Just be careful what strings he attaches... He seems to want to bet on an 11-1 Az St [/ QUOTE ] I most certainly did not, you should read closely, you seem to misread my prop offers no matter how clearly they read. I don't care what ASU's record is so don't misrepresent my offer. I disagreed with the poster who said *any* of those 3 were better than ASU. I said I will take that bet, at Pick in any bowl game. It could be 1-loss ASU v 1-loss Okla, or 1-loss ASU v 1-loss Kansas or Missou, or 2-loss ASU v 2-loss Okla or Missou or 1-loss Kansas, etc, or 3-loss ASU v 2-loss Missou or Okla or etc. No strings. None. ASU v whatever B12 team they play in whatever bowl, be it in New Orleans for BCS title, or San Diego or Phoenix or elsewhere. At Even money. ASU can be 11-1 in BCS or not, or 10-2, or 9-3, and their QB is currently banged up with a bad throwing hand. It's the B12 backers that suddenly backpedaled and attached strings, not me. They only want to back certain teams, not the ones ranked #3 and/or #5 whereas ASU is #8. Seems odd. My offer stands. No strings. Any B12 team in any bowl game in any location. I get the #8 team, you get the current 3, 4 or 5 team. But they don't believe what they said, so...
|
|
#38
11-14-2007, 07:22 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title
[ QUOTE ]
Arizona State USC +3 40.7% Both of these lines are already available on Sportsbook [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Okay, I don't use them [so I assume that's the line] but I will take your generous offer of Even on ASU v USC for a whopping $100 so we don't have to worry about escrow nonsense. Yes/no?
|
|
#39
11-14-2007, 07:32 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Arizona State USC +3 40.7% Both of these lines are already available on Sportsbook [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Okay, I don't use them [so I assume that's the line] but I will take your generous offer of Even on ASU v USC for a whopping $100 so we don't have to worry about escrow nonsense. Yes/no? [/ QUOTE ] Of course I agree. Me USC +0 EV You Az St +0 EV Book it for $100
|
|
#40
11-14-2007, 07:46 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Calculating LSU\'s Odds to win National Title
[ QUOTE ]
I most certainly did not, you should read closely, you seem to misread my prop offers no matter how clearly they read. I don't care what ASU's record is so don't misrepresent my offer. [/ QUOTE ] Naj, I realize that you did not explicitly state that Az St had to be 11-1. Still, the circumstances favor your side. For example, it is a fact that the Big 12 winner must play in the Fiesta Bowl unless they make the title game. The Fiesta Bowl is in Arizona. If Az St does not go 11-1, they will most likely play in the Holiday Bowl. They could then easily wind up playing TEXAS, a Big 12 team that no one here is interested in backing. If they play in the Holiday Bowl (and the sites I looked at both project them to wind up here), then they most certainly are not going to be playing the top 1 or 2 Big 12 teams. In fact, they would probably wind up with the #4 (Texas). So you see, it's the circumstances that favor you. You don't need to explicitly state anymore than you did. [ QUOTE ] I disagreed with the poster who said *any* of those 3 were better than ASU. [/ QUOTE ] The way I understand his post, he means to say that he can't believe that you think Az St is better then ALL 3 of those teams. I realize he actually wrote ANY, but that is a common way to say it. [ QUOTE ] I said I will take that bet, at Pick in any bowl game. It could be 1-loss ASU v 1-loss Okla [/ QUOTE ] This game could not possibly take place anyplace but the Fiesta Bowl (or the BCS title game, but that so unlikely that we can ignore it). As I already pointed out, the Big 12 winner MUST play in the Fiesta Bowl if it does not make the BCS title game. The Fiesta Bowl is in Arizona. [ QUOTE ] or 1-loss ASU v 1-loss ... Missou, [/ QUOTE ] Again, this must take place in the Fiesta Bowl. [ QUOTE ] or 2-loss ASU v 2-loss Okla or Missou or 1-loss Kansas, etc, or 3-loss ASU v 2-loss Missou or Okla or etc. [/ QUOTE ] These games won't happen. A 2 loss Az St team is gonna get bumped all the way down to the Holiday Bowl.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
