200NL: Two pair against maniac on 3flush board

Schwang · #1 08-30-2007, 10:36 AM

Villain is Montagnais, I have him at 62/12/4.84 over 200 hands. I've seen him make overbet bluffs before. After he called the flop and turn I put him on a flushdraw. Should I follow my read and fold or am I good here often enough to call this?
Also, I didn't raise pre-flop, because I hate playing this hand OOP against him in a raised pot.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($231)
UTG ($326.15)
MP ($238.88)
CO ($360.20)
Button ($268.76)
Hero ($214.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls $2, CO calls $2, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($9) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets $6, BB folds, MP calls $6, CO calls $6.

Turn: ($27) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $20, MP calls $20, CO folds.

River: ($67) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP calls $238.88 (All-In).

Final Pot: $305.88

Schwang · #2 08-31-2007, 10:47 AM

Nobody? This hand haunted me for days and I'd like to hear some opinions.

Demogorgon · #3 08-31-2007, 10:53 AM

Uh I was pretty sure I replied in this thread, wtf.

Anyway, this is a very sick spot and I think you should go with your read. There's just no way to give a good advice here. How long ago was he caught overbet-bluffing? If it was a long time ago and you have it in a note I'd be more inclined to call.

Daddy Warbucks · #4 08-31-2007, 10:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I've seen him make overbet bluffs before.

[/ QUOTE ]

In my experience, and from looking back over his big pots, his overbet pushes are rarely a bluff, and he gets ridiculous action on them because of his stats. I fold here, but i probably would have bet folded the river.

jc1418 · #5 08-31-2007, 11:46 AM

block the river and it wont haunt you

sh58 · #6 08-31-2007, 11:49 AM

i think you will have to fold, he isn't laying you great odds to call. you have to go with your read, otherwise why have one

Schwang · #7 08-31-2007, 01:59 PM

Ok I folded this and felt really bad about it afterwards. When I saw him overbet bluff the river before he fired the other 2 streets too, so I put him on a flush here.
Bet/fold probably is a better line here. I checked with the intention of calling a normal bet, but things went a little different [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].