100NL: Turned Set on 4straight board

[Schwang]

No reads on villain, as it was one of the first hands on this table.
Should I just puke and fold or is this a bluff often enough?

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $138.96
BB: $102.05
UTG: $202.19
MP: $100.00
Hero (CO): $100.88
BTN: $55.34

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $1.00, MP folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5.00</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $4.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($12) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $8.00</font>, SB calls $8.00

Turn: ($28) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $20.00</font>, SB calls $20.00

River: ($68) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets all-in</font>, Hero?

[ebalf]

to make a straight he'd have to hold KQ or 9x, maybe 99
would he call your big preflop-bet OOP?
KQ: maybe
99: yes
9x: don't think so, not even with 98s or A9s

So let's assume he's holding KQ or 99
Would he c-c your flop-bet with KQ or 99? Yes.
Would he c-c your turn-bet with KQ or 99? 99 yes, maybe. KQ I rather think he'd c-r.
River: all-in with KQ? Maybe, since you're probably afraid or the straight and he won't be able to c-r you. all-in with 99 when you maybe hold KQ? don't think so.

Other holdings for that line?
TT, 77.
But would TT and 77 really go all-in on that flop? don't think so.

He bets &gt;100 into a 68$-pot. That's a BIG bet. What does Sklansky say? If he bets big and a big hand is possible, he's likely to hold that big hand. Big bets normally mean big hands.

Two straights on the board and no weaker hand likely to push. I guess I'd fold.

[wrkingtobegreat]

This seems like a total donk move. His bet sizing on the river is atrocious. Its probally just a huge donk pushing his straight or flush. Its a fold.

[Noam Chomsky]

I think I call this a fair percentage of the time. Flush draw missed, it's unlikely but he could be shoving two pair for value, his line indicates he's not real bright.

Also, what 9 does he show up with here? A9? T9? Neither one seems very likely given the action and either one gets us back to him riding the short bus so....

Plus, folding sets sucks.

[Pat Southern]

Call, if he somehow got to that river with a 9 then good for him. BTW everyone he's essentially potting river with hero's stack.

[jmc999]

100-(5+8+20) = $64 left in hero's stack -- 2:1 to call.

After thinking about it for awhile, I'm not sure if I really want to call this bet. It's entirely possible that our opponent flopped a flush draw and backed into a straight with 9d.

We don't know our opponent, but our opponent doesn't know us either -- I'd tend to think that his shove was a value bet more than a bluff.

I'm interested in what everyone else has to say. Are we good 33% of the time here?