Tough Turn Spot 3-handed in 20/180

LearnedfromTV · #1 11-13-2006, 05:55 PM

Villain has shown two big bluffs, (both against the other player, not that it matters) when the board got scary on later streets. I think he's thinking enough to use this as a setup for a big bet with a big hand. My image is tight (I have not 3 bet much preflop, once in about 30 hands versus him previously, he folded pre, once versus the other guy), plus he knows I've seen him show the bluffs.

Payout of 20/180 is 1080/720/428.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (3 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button (t47668)
SB (t111692)
Hero (t110640)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, SB raises to t6000, Hero raises to t18000, SB calls t12000.

Flop: (t36100) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t24000, SB calls t24000.

Turn: (t84100) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets t69592 (All-In)

deankeaton7 · #2 11-13-2006, 06:30 PM

Damn tough. I could find a fold here. Would he go for the C/R on the flop with a heart draw? I do have a hard time giving anyone a ton of credit even down to just three. If I were him, my move in range would def. be pretty wide, as your line looks like a made hand and not a draw. I wouldnt be surprised to see alot of different hands here, including quite a few that beat you.

Nez477 · #3 11-13-2006, 06:43 PM

It might be a lame question, but did he instapush the turn?

If he's even close to a thinking player, and he sounds like it, he could be pulling some kind of form of stop and go on the turn (which is sort of which you already said).

In a vacuum, making that bet with a made flush is not the 'normal' line unless he for some reason feels as if it is the best way to get value against a player like you. Obviously, the higher we factor in his skill (using his previous bluffs against you or whatever) the less inclined I am to call.

All of that said though, this is really tough to fold 3-handed IMO. Villian could easily have a worse king (or air even) here if he's shown aggression previously.

If he instapushed, I'd probably call. It just shows that he was planning (probably) to push no matter what the turn was. Again, I'm probably looking too much into it, but I think timing might matter a little here.

Regardless, this is a tough spot. With your read I guess a fold is possible. Additionally, isn't checking the flop a viable option if he's been aggressive? Stack sizes are pretty good for a check-raise.

What saddens me reading this hand is that I'd probably pretty much instacall the turn, just because it's 3-handed. Which is lame.

Brad

Green Kool Aid · #4 11-13-2006, 06:44 PM

with your reads id expecto see some sort of combo between pair/ flush draw/ straight draw etc.

i call, not overly thrilled, but the pot is laying you too good of a price.

#5 11-13-2006, 07:01 PM

As described, I beat the Villain into the pot.

edit: oh and

[ QUOTE ]
I think he's thinking enough to use this as a setup for a big bet with a big hand

[/ QUOTE ]

In a 20/180?? Really?

swede554 · #6 11-13-2006, 07:11 PM

I think this is a pair+flush draw (KxQ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10x) often enough to justify a call here. I'd have a hard time folding this 3-handed.

LearnedfromTV · #7 11-13-2006, 07:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
As described, I beat the Villain into the pot.

edit: oh and

[ QUOTE ]
I think he's thinking enough to use this as a setup for a big bet with a big hand

[/ QUOTE ]

In a 20/180?? Really?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, b/c he played decent and wrote some semi-intelligent poker chat, and because i think one of the first tricks first thing semi-decent players like to pull is the fake bluff.

I really wanted to call (not saying whether i did), but I had a hard time convincing myself I was good 1/3 accounting for whatever outs he has if he's bluffing.

I think the stack sizes matter some too, icm-wise. 110/110/40 is not a spot when the two big stacks usually get reckless v each other. I also think a +cEV call here is not necessarily +$EV, especially because I'm fairly sure I play and pushbot better than them. This only matters if it's close, but it does matter. In fact, this last paragraph is the main reason I posted this. Playing all these 20/180s means making a decent number of final tables and so I've been thinking about and working on these endgame considerations, which are different from in sit and goes, I think.

LearnedfromTV · #8 11-13-2006, 07:42 PM

rough sketch:

call and win my equity is $950+
call and lose my equity is $428

fold = 154/69/47 = ????