AK vs. river push (NLTRN $11)

[vodoo]

there is no way that calling here is +EV imo.

You wont see this type of players bluffing there 35% of the time.

Not this player and not on this lvl

[laser16]

I didn't mean he was only shoving boats i just meant that in my experience at this level people shoving this spot will have a strong hand be that a over pair or trips or whatever. I do agree though that he is more likely to shove AT then A5 here I just don't think its enough for us to call.

[daveT]

Rather confused here.

He is over-shoving the pot by 300. I haven't seen to many people push like this on the river without wanting the game to be over. I am also inclined to think that he would bet smaller with a strong hand, begging for a call.

Do you have a specific read on the kinds of hands he likes to bet on the river, and what a turn check is likely to mean?

Considering a level one, he might be checking a strong hand hoping you will bluff the river. With that failing, he may be doing the classic NLTP push, or while holding a strong pair, he is hoping you have a slightly smaller pair that you will want to call with.

I think you can find a better spot to take him out with.

After reviewing this once more, I think we are staring at a group one.

[ChicagoRy]

I mean if he's slowplaying, fine you can fold you're behind, but there's nothing specific you've mentioned about that. Players that are rather tight and cautious don't generally wakeup with a shove on the river after checking two streets on this kind of board.

I maintain that if it's "a monster or a bluff" you should call.

[how_can_losing?]

[ QUOTE ]
I maintain that if it's "a monster or a bluff" you should call.

[/ QUOTE ]


Ry, do you think this is more true as you move up in levels? Is this equally true at the $11s as it is at the 110s?

In my opinion there is little need for hero calls at the 11s-33s. Villains will stack off very light. At these levels you have to be able to pick off bluffs on a 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] board when a blank hits and the villain makes an obvious bluff. As you move up and opponents get trickier (somewhat at the 55s and more so at the 110s) I would agree that you have to be willing to call light in a "nuts or air" situation. And if you find someone who can valueshove one-pair hands, knowing that you're inclined to call, avoid them.

I agree with laser who said people usually can't read hands at the 11s, so it is unlikely villain is trying to push hero off AK.

[Dalek]

Pre-flop i thought he may have a pocket pair (22-99) or an Ace or too high cards. He called a re-raise rather than re-raising again which showed some strength but not a lot.

By the river, four aces are beating you as is any pair. I would fold as you said he is a tight player. It may be a bluff but usually when iv'e seen a tight player bluff they won't put in more than they have to to make it work. The GG also seems like an attempt to get you to call.

[dippy111]

For the record, I didn't call. But I tend to agree with CRy, I don't remember he specifics of the hand anymore, but I do remember thinking that it was outrageously inconsistent with anything he had done before. I think this is a bluff more than 35% of the time. I wish I had called.

[daveT]

If your opponent is willing to bluff over-shove here, wouldn't a better time come up for this kind of call?

I am guessing this is the only time this happened?

[dippy111]

Just because an opponent sees an opportunity to make a big bluff once doesn't mean he's going to bluff everytime

[daveT]

I agree, dippy111. I feel like if the opponent really wants to bluff that bad, then let him have it. being bluffed is part of big bet poker. You are bluffed and you bluff.

However, there is an ego thing that sometimes goes on with certain bluffers. They will continuously over-shove bluff, spinning in their seat and laughing the whole time.