$0.50NL - When to fold AA postflop

[cjd]

I play $0.50NL, and buy in for 100BB ($50), or 200BB when on AbsolutePoker ($100).

AA is definately my most profitable hand. I'm wondering what makes other people fold it postflop. PokerTracker shows me making an average of 4.78 big bets for each AA hand (which is 9.56 big blinds for each AA hand). I win with them 88.36% of the time which seems in line.

Preflop, when opening, I raise AA to $2.25-$3.00 (4-6x BB). I meet any bet or re-raise with a decent sized re-raise.

On the flop, I usually bet about the pot, unless it's a multiway pot, then I usually bet a bit less so I don't become committed to going all-in with just an overpair.

Most of the time, people fold to my flop bet. I'm really tired of how many donks call 4-6x BB with 45suited and hit two pair on the flop. Obviously sets hit also. I know their preflop call pays me off in the long run, but I'm wondering what thoughts other people have to decide when to fold AA after the flop. I've gotta admit that lately, whenever I get a re-raise after my large flop bet, I wonder if I should be letting it go assuming I didn't pick up a set.

If the board's screaming flush or straight I'm able to lay it down when someone's betting strong.

I'm sure the answer varies at higher levels. But what should I be doing at $0.50NL?

[cjd]

I'm looking for responses more generalized than on this specific hand, but wanted to post this hand as an example of where I'm not really sure what to do.

For some reason the hand converters aren't handling the UB text correctly. UB updated their software today (shrug.)


SB is at seat 0 with $13.30.
BB is at seat 1 with $27.40.
(Hero) is at seat 2 with $61.10.
#1 is at seat 3 with $14.60.
#2 is at seat 4 with $58.
#3 is at seat 5 with $10.
#4 is at seat 6 with $109.80.
#5 is at seat 7 with $54.10.
#6 is at seat 8 with $41.20.
#7 is at seat 9 with $46.30.
The button is #7.

SB posts the small blind of $.25.
BB posts the big blind of $.50.

(Hero): Ac Ah

Pre-flop:

(Hero) raises to $2.25. #1 folds.
#2 folds. #3 folds. #4 folds.
#5 folds. #6 folds. #7 calls.
SB folds. BB folds.

Flop (board: 4h 8c 5c):

(Pot Size: $5.25)

(Hero) bets $4.75. #7 raises to $9.50. (Hero) ???

[Albert Moulton]

If you end up post-flop putting more than 8x the size of the preflop pot then you are either (1) behind, or (2) up against a very bad player.

Of course there are exceptions. For example, there are nits who would never c/r, or even play post-flop without a set or monster draw, so you can fold much earlier vs those guys. And there are maniacs, some bad LAGs, and a few calling stations that might put more in with worse than AA. But in general, I think about 8x is pretty close as a decent rule of thumb.

I think the key is to try and manipulate the pot size when/if you can to get as low an SPR as possible preflop with AA in the 100bb game (as close to 5 as you can), and a relatively high SPR in the 200 bb game (close to 20). In the high SPR game, check a lot of turns and sometimes check the flop to manage pot-size and induce bluffs in medium-sized pots, especially when OOP.

Obviously you can't always get what you want in terms of SPR, but if you think about it then you can often get closer than you might if you don't think about it at all.

[Albert Moulton]

In the hand, call the min-raise and reevaluate the turn.

A read is necessary to make a quality decision on the turn, though.

Is he a set miner? If he is, you might just fold to the flop c/r. Or call the min-raise, then bet/fold the turn when/if he pushes.

Is he a guy who raises cb's light with any pair, TP, and/or any draw? Then you could crai if he makes a big turn bet with a range that you think you are frequently ahead of. Especially if you pick up a club on the turn you might crai to rep the flush with a backdoor draw to the nut flush. Alternatively, you could bet 1/2 pot at a club turn and fold to a push.

It all depends, but I think calling the min-raise is probably a prudent first step in many cases.

As for when to let it go with villain starting with just under 100bb's, well it's often going to hard to get away OOP like this without some kind of a read.