Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Results and Panel Comments

[CardSharpCook]

well, a bet of 700 or so could just look like a bluff in which you just don't want to commit yourself. I wonder what effect it would have. I wonder what % of people call the push vs. call the 700. Do more or less people call the push? Do enough players call the push vs. the bet to make it more +EV? I know that bugstud does this a lot. The over push.

[Alex Jacob]

for what it's worth, i agree with these points as i told strass before the results were posted. i would consider betting the river but would probably check and i think this is the correct play in general (and i do not like to miss value bets). if i did decide to bet it would be small enough where i could leave myself room to fold to a check-raise. of course, i would only make this bet if i was very confident that the player was not tricky enough to check-raise bluff me.

i am not sold that all but a tiny minority of players are more likely to call a bigger bet than a smaller one with a medium-strength hand. yeah, fine, all-in may look more like a bluff, but you still have to risk more to call it. in general i think it takes a strong player to truly be more willing to call off their whole stack than a smallish bet in this situation, and in an online tournament (a satellite no less) i just don't think you will run into this player often enough for the play to be correct. yeah, do it against matusow at the final table, but not here.

[highlander]

Wow! Awesome analysis by all three masters.

I check behind 100% of the time on the river too. So, Jason's river all in is the most interesting part of the hand for me. I see his (very advanced) reasoning, but if this hand was played out 100 different times w/ different Villain hole cards I'm not sure it's a winner for Jason. I could see Villain checking w/ the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] thinking that's the only way he could win more chips after the river card.

Anyway I really enjoyed reading the analyses of this hand.

Best,

Tex

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
The results are exactly in line with what they should be. All of the evidence points to a one-pair hand after the turn action. Of course, we were narrowing down his range of hands on every street, but by the end of the turn, you should have a very good feel for where he is. YOU are being "results-oriented" when you look at the responses and say, "2 of the 3 panelists check. Most of the other posters check. 2 out of 3 panelists CAN'T be wrong!"

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright, fine, all the evidence points to a one pair hand. The evidence couldn't possibly point to a pair + draw, right?

There's just no way that Villian could be on:

6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (Negranue would play this hand)
K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Given that Villian does happen to be a donk, it is completely plausible that any of the above could be his holdings. Plenty of the donks will call with incorrect odds to hit their flush on the river (regardless of whether they have a pair or not).

And while many of them would bet their flush on the river, this is one who min check-raised us on the flop and check-called a large bet out of position on the river. Since he plays incorrectly, it's possible that he'd play his made flush incorrectly by checking to us on the river as well.

When the majority of 2+2'ers advocate for the river check, and when 2 out of 3 of the "masters" on the panel also check, I would think that the majority rules here.

Just because Hero was correct about Villian this time does not mean he'll be right in this spot everytime. How often do you honestly believe you'll be paid off by 10's on this river? As opposed to how often you'll be spewing chips and sent packing?

[Roman]

zzzz.... he bets river almost 100% with a flush. Majority rules in poker lol.... what a joke.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
zzzz.... he bets river almost 100% with a flush. Majority rules in poker lol.... what a joke.

[/ QUOTE ]

Once again, you're applying our own logic and reasoning as if everyone is going to play like we do. Not all donks are going to "value bet" their made flush on the river, they don't think or play like we do.

He played his pocket 10's horribly, and quite unlike an experienced player would have. So how can you say with 100% certainty that he would have played his made flush on the river correctly? What a joke! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

p.s. Don't use "lol". That just makes you look like you still use AOL, which should have died back in 1995

[Roman]

[ QUOTE ]
So how can you say with 100% certainty that he would have played his made flush on the river correctly?

[/ QUOTE ]

Firstly, there is a difference between 'correctly' and the line I expect my opponent to take in a hand.
Ofcourse it is not 100% certain that he doesnt have a flush. However, ive made money in poker making good guesses, and my guess is that he almost definitely does not have a flush, and that is good enough for me to stick my chips in here.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So how can you say with 100% certainty that he would have played his made flush on the river correctly?

[/ QUOTE ]

Firstly, there is a difference between 'correctly' and the line I expect my opponent to take in a hand.
Ofcourse it is not 100% certain that he doesnt have a flush. However, ive made money in poker making good guesses, and my guess is that he almost definitely does not have a flush, and that is good enough for me to stick my chips in here.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking is this:

Most of the time your opponent is not going to call your 500+ chip bet on the turn with 10/10, right? And most of the time they aren't going to call your river push with that hand when the flush arrives and there's a Queen on board as well.

As such, most of the time your bet on the river will fail to earn you any additional chips, but it will cost you your tournament life when you are beat.

Again, you're risking way too many chips with a river bet for such a small return (risking 2400 chips to win another 600 if you bet 600 and plan to fold to a push, and risking 1600 chips to win another 600 if you bet and plan to call a check-push by your opponent).

Congrats for your strong read here, but I think in the long run this play is -EV and will only cost you chips, not win you additional ones.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
your tournament life

[/ QUOTE ]

1)if everyone that used that term would forget it existed I would appreciate it

[ QUOTE ]
Again, you're risking way too many chips with a river bet for such a small return (risking 2400 chips to win another 600 if you bet 600 and plan to fold to a push

[/ QUOTE ]

2)if he will not bluff CR (and most won't), you are not risking 2400 to win 600, you're risking 600 to win 600

[Roman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
your tournament life

[/ QUOTE ]

1)if everyone that used that term would forget it existed I would appreciate it


[/ QUOTE ]
I was gonna say the same exact thing but didn't cause id just sound like an ass.