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#1
11-29-2007, 11:42 AM
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Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
Question 1
Total hands he can hold: AA 1 possible hand 1 spades hand KK 6 possible hands 3 spades hands 6 possible hands 3 spades hands JJ 6 possible hands 3 spades hands AK 8 possible hands 4 spades hands Therefore odds is (1+3+3+3+4)/(1+6+6+6+8) = 51.8% he has a spade. I will round up to 52% Question 2 Let's assume villian bets out on turn and river, and HERO calls. Total EV of calling down = ((0.48*15)+(0.52*-2)) = 6.16BB EV of turn and river call down bets = ((0.48*2)+(0.52*-2)) = -0.08BB Pot's too big to ignore. Calling is still +EV, so reasonable to call down. Question 3 Assuming villian will call when he holds no flush, and he will raise if he has a flush. EV of HERO's turn bet/fold = ((0.48*1)+(0.52*-1)) = -0.04BB EV of HERO's turn check/call = ((0.48*1)+(0.52*-1)) = -0.04BB Same EV for both decision. I'd go for check/call, you get to see the river, and you don't forfeit the huge pot. Question 4 So that adds hands like: TT 6 possible hands 3 spades hands AQs 2 possible hands 1 spades hands The odds he's holding onto spades becomes = (1+3+3+3+4+3+1)/(1+6+6+6+8+6+2) = 51.4% Well... not much difference if he's range is widened. So teacher, is my math correct??? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] 
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#2
11-29-2007, 11:58 AM
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Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
[ QUOTE ]
AK 8 possible hands 4 spades hands [/ QUOTE ] Not too hot on this myself, but I *think* that's one short for the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]... Making it 55.5555555555 (etc) he has a spade. Similarly for AQs when you expand his hand range.
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#3
11-29-2007, 12:34 PM
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Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
[ QUOTE ]
Not too hot on this myself, but I *think* that's one short for the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]... [/ QUOTE ] You are right I missed this in my calcs too. Wont change EV much...too lazy to recalc.
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#4
11-29-2007, 11:12 PM
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Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] AK 8 possible hands 4 spades hands [/ QUOTE ] Not too hot on this myself, but I *think* that's one short for the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]... Making it 55.5555555555 (etc) he has a spade. Similarly for AQs when you expand his hand range. [/ QUOTE ] Oops, ok. thanks for informing. But too lazy to recalculate. Wont' change much anyway.
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