Looking for variance analysis

[Kristian]

I seem to remember a post analysing the variance of NL cash, but I may be wrong. What I am looking for is basically answers to questions of this kind: I played X hands and lost Y dollars, how (un)likely is this for a winning player with expected winnings of Z BB/100?

[DJ Sensei]

depends on your standard deviation just as much as your winrate.

and you shouldn't really know either that precisely without 100k+ hands.

anecdotal evidence provides that most good winning players undergo 10-12 buyin downswings periodically, and 15-20 buyin downswings are possible. beyond that probably is possible too, but is probably a result of poor play as well as cards running cold.

[MilkMan]

i'm gonna go out on a limb and say move down

[bet2win]

lol

[Kristian]

[ QUOTE ]
depends on your standard deviation just as much as your winrate.

and you shouldn't really know either that precisely without 100k+ hands.

anecdotal evidence provides that most good winning players undergo 10-12 buyin downswings periodically, and 15-20 buyin downswings are possible. beyond that probably is possible too, but is probably a result of poor play as well as cards running cold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, someone must have come up with some reasonable variance numbers and maybe even used them to do some calculations, right?

Some answer besides 'you dont have enough hands' should be available somewhere.

[bet2win]

some dude posted some really good variance graphs where you could put your SD and winrate and show likely swings I cant remember how long ago it was maybe a month?

I'm sure someone has the link

[Black Wings]

not sure if this will help

[Kristian]

[ QUOTE ]
not sure if this will help

[/ QUOTE ]

Sweet link, thanks a bunch.