A hypothethical staking arrangement

jkkkk · #1 01-02-2007, 12:50 PM

A friend of yours, Kris, comes up to you and says:

"I know this crazy guy who is willing to give 200 even money on his open ended straight flush draw cracking my top set everytime, I've already worked it out and we have 60% equity for every single time we take this bet. Can you stake me and we'll split the profit 50 50? I only have time to do this once but it'll be some easy money, what do you say?"

You sit back and think for a second and then reply:

"No, it is -EV for me to risk 200 to win 100 on a 60/40 bet, but obviously longterm we would make money'

How many times does Kris have to make this bet, and with what size bankroll, for this to be profitable for us after one session?

Gonso · #2 01-02-2007, 01:28 PM

If you have 60% equity, the bet is +EV. You would want split the <u>expectation</u> with your friend, not the amount in the pots you take.

jkkkk · #3 01-02-2007, 01:38 PM

Thats great and all, but not what I asked.

Gonso · #4 01-02-2007, 01:40 PM

There's a problem with the question:

[ QUOTE ]
How many times does Kris have to make this bet, and with what size bankroll, for this to be profitable for us after one session?

[/ QUOTE ]

Figure your SD per bet is $200, each bet you have $40 EV (so make that your win rate per bet), and give yourself a cozy RoR of 2 percent... you could hold a BR here of a little under 2k and be fine.

You want me to predict the result of the session? You can't assure yourself that you'll be profitable at all here.

wtfsvi · #5 01-02-2007, 01:42 PM

(0.4^2 * -400) + (0.6^2 * 200) = 8 of +EV

So I think two bets and $400 bankroll should mean +EV.

jkkkk · #6 01-02-2007, 01:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
(0.4^2 * -400) + (0.6^2 * 200) = 8 of +EV

So I think two bets and $400 bankroll should mean +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah wtfsvi figured it out first, should of left it for other people to figure out! oh well [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

wtfsvi · #7 01-02-2007, 01:52 PM

Sorry [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I figured someone could tell us what is wrong with it if there is something.

jkkkk · #8 01-02-2007, 01:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You want me to predict the result of the session? You can't assure yourself that you'll be profitable at all here.

[/ QUOTE ]

The question was simply how many bets do we need here in order to turn this from -EV to +EV.

Gonso · #9 01-02-2007, 01:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah wtfsvi figured it out first, should of left it for other people to figure out! oh well

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The question was simply how many bets do we need here in order for this to be profitable for us after one session?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, but if you look back, that isn't what you wrote:

[ QUOTE ]
How many times does Kris have to make this bet, and with what size bankroll, for this to be profitable for us after one session?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you see the difference, or no?

jkkkk · #10 01-02-2007, 02:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How many times does Kris have to make this bet, and with what size bankroll, for this to be profitable for us after one session?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
So I think two bets and $400 bankroll should mean +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]