(NL50) QQ on wet board OOP against regular TAG

[PietM]

I have a lot (>6000) of hands datamined on villain. He's a TAG (16/13), and he's one of the biggest winners in my DB.

I folded here, but in retrospect that doesn't seem to be right move. IMO I can't call here. Villain could easily put me on a draw and bet on the turn.
I can't really put villain on a straight or straightdraw here. Maybe a nutflushdraw, but most likely some kind of pair < JJ (I think he would reraise with JJ+).

Chances are he has a set, but some pair between 66 and TT are in his range too, right? So is this a push, or can I find a fold here?

(I haven't got the HH here, doing this from memory)



Villain and Hero both have $50 stacks, blinds are $0.25/$0.50

Hero is UTG with QQ (one spade) and raises to $2. Villain calls, rest folds.

Flop: 234 (two spades). Hero bets 3/4 Pot, Villain makes potsize raise, Hero.... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[CazicT]

I wish I could tell you the answer, but this is the type of situation I have trouble with myself.

Basically, calling sucks because you will be OOP and you won't know where you stand.

Raising kinda sucks because you will win only if he was on a bluff and might even be raised all-in if he has a decent draw. But you still won't know for sure whether he is on a draw or has a made hand.

Raising all-in seems OK, but he will only call of course if he has you crushed.

Folding is OK, thought it feels very weak because I think it's more probable than not that you are in the lead right now.

I guess this is one of those reverse implied odds situations where you have to risk alot to win a little and so maybe just folding is better.

You didn't mention, but I assume the villian is in LP. This gives him a pretty wide range of possibilities. Also, what was your table image at the time. Does he have reason to believe you are nitty or that you CB way too much?

[PietM]

Villain was on the button, sorry for not including that.

I was CB'ing a lot, I think villain knows me just like I know him.

Another piece of info: villain was raising a lot of CB's, around 10%. Does that change anything?