An Expert Laydown I Should Have Made?

[PokrLikeItsProse]

I have A4 suited in the BB and its a limped family pot pre-flop.

The flop comes 952 with two clubs. Checked around to the cut-off who bets. He had missed the blinds and posted a live big blind and a dead small blind. I decide to check and we have 6 people seeing the turn.

The turn is an off-suit 3, giving me the second nuts. I check, planning to check-raise. CO bets as predicted. SB calls. I check-raise. Everyone else folds. CO hems and haws before calling. SB folds.

From what I know of my opponent, I am absolutely certain that he has believes that I have a straight and that he wouldn't call my check-raise unless he has outs. I am also certain based on a tell that he didn't flop a set. His hand range here is two pair or the nine of clubs with another club. I think that he probably folds K9o or TT here.

The river brings another non-club 3. I bet. He raises. There's no way he's bluff-raising me here since he is certain I have a straight. If I know my opponent well enough to absolutely know that he thinks I have a straight here, should I fold?

These situations always make me uncomfortable. I feel like I am being a slave to some book by thinking "big pot, gotta call" when all my logical abilities say otherwise. Against other opponents, it's an insta-call. Against some, it is a reraise. But against this particular opponent with this board and action, I was sorely tempted to fold. I was actually considering checking and calling if the river had paired one of the flop cards, but the 3 seemed harmless.

I find myself playing badly after brooding when I make calls when I need to be 90% sure to profitably fold and I am more like 95-99% sure but still call. Some books say to leave the expert laydowns to the experts. What if I am good enough to make those laydowns?

[HoneyBadger]

Always factor in the 10% nutcase factor. Even I am surprised some times that I still win. And if you let them see you are capable of folding this, who knows what happens next time. But I know how you feel, I have the same thing. The other day someone donked the river, and another guy called... I thought about it and there was no way he could call with anything I beat, in the event the donker was bluffing. Therefore, I figured an overcall was throwing away money, and I folded. The donker was bluffing, and the 2nd guy called with bottom pair, after all the action before. I had folded my winning middle pair.

And your hand is an easy call imo. You can not read someone for a boat with 95% certainty, just because the turn and river pair the board. Why can't he have an overpair and figure he beats all the other two-pairs now? Why can't it be some ridiculous desperation bluff on a missed flush? How can you know, for sure, he knows you have a straight AND him having a boat... imo you can't.

[getting better]

You can lay this down ONLY when you can lay this down without asking. If there is some doubt then you should still call. There is rarely no doubt unless there is more than one other player and there has been some action leading up to your decision.

Also, even if this is someone who you figure wont bluff here, consider that he could know you have the straight and still be raising the same hand as yours in hopes of winning the other half of the pot.

And finally, he is not certain that you have the straight.

[ProfessorBen]

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An Expert Laydown I Should Have Made?

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These situations always make me uncomfortable. I feel like I am being a slave to some book by thinking "big pot, gotta call" when all my logical abilities say otherwise.

Some books say to leave the expert laydowns to the experts.

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Haven't read the post...

but are you more concerned with making money and learning how to play +EV or "looking good?" If it's the former, you're thinking in the wrong mentality.

[bernie]

If no one was between you and the flop bettor, you might consider raising. Just an idea.

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The river brings another non-club 3. I bet. He raises. There's no way he's bluff-raising me here since he is certain I have a straight. If I know my opponent well enough to absolutely know that he thinks I have a straight here, should I fold?


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If this is your read, fold. Just make sure you're comfortable enough with it that if he shows you a lesser hand, you're ok with it given your read. Meaning the odds of him pulling a move are so slim/rare it won't matter what he shows you.

One thing I'd be apprehensive about is that predictable players like this usually don't play a set fast on the flop and instead wait for the turn. Which would lean me towards calling.

Good point someone made where, if you have to ask, call it. You're not sure enough. But you have to be able to take it should you be wrong. Otherwise, you may tilt a bit and that hand now can cost you a bit more.

But it can take a bit to take that first step in really trusting your read. That first time you lay down a winner in a decent sized pot can sting. Btw...everyone's done it.

b

[Hielko]

Depends how good you read is if you can fold it.

brag: I have folded topset once on a 3-straight board in a 20+ BB pot for a single bet on the river closing the action.
beat: It was against a regular. It was an old lady and after the action of the turn (a 3-bet, WOW!) the only and absolutly only hand she could have was the nuts.
variance: I open folded the river without even thinking.

[PokrLikeItsProse]

The guy showed me 93 of clubs. I came very close to calling out his exact hand before making my crying call. I'm not sure how the table would have reacted if I had done that.

Just to address a few things mentioned by different people.

Some people are sufficiently sane that you just can't assign them as having a 10% nut factor. You're probably making a mistake if you made that assumption when I raised (although you would have to factor in whether or not you think that I think that you are bluffable).

I disagree that you can't be sure that a player has a 95% chance of having a full house. Of course, you can't be sure that a random player has that chance, but I felt like I had been at the same table long enough to have a very good read on this player and a very good read on his read on me. I have this strong, powerful table image that was sufficient recently for my flop raise with TPTK to cow a LAG with top two pair into check-calling down because he feared I had a set. My image comes in handy occasionally when I am presented with rare bluffing opportunities, but it seems to cut down on how much I can make with my big hands and usually means that my medium-strong hands are crushed when an observant player raises me on the river.

With the flush draw out there, I'm pretty sure that if my opponent had the same hand he would be reraising me on the turn because the player who called between us could have two clubs and because I could be check-raising him with a set. Given that he waited until the river to raise against me, all signs pointed to that river trey helping him, which can only realistically happen if he has a full house.

[Nyquiz]

I think a little bit of the results are seeping into your post. There is almost no way I know what someone has with 100% certainty. You can however put them on a hand range and then assess how likely it is that the person has a particular hand given that range.

If you know for absolute certainty that this person knows you have a straight and is in no way bluff raising you then you're beat, your read takes away the % chance that this person could be bluff and that they have a lesser hand.

I try not to make expert lay downs in hold em' even in games like 15/30- whatever, I look for spots where my equity or odds really suck and I lower my variance by folding my hand in those situations. If you are continually looking for spots to make miraculous laydowns, you will find them, and then hate yourself when you keep totally misreading your opponents hand strength.

[gobbledygeek]

* grunch *

What are you getting here, 15:1? This clueless noob makes this call all day every day and doesn't even think twice about it. But after thinking twice about it, it does kinda look like you're in trouble. Is Villain passive preflop (not raising QQ/JJ/TT), if so, could think his two pair is now better. Could perhaps have something like 34. I dunno, in the end I just don't think there is anything expert about laying down a good hand getting 15:1.

[TheCount212]

"I am also certain based on a tell that he didn't flop a set. "

So if he doesn't have a boat, why wouldn't you call? Not sure how u can make an expert laydown when your tell says you're good here.