Up $4000 in 24 hours - am I any good or just a lucky donk?

toyotaboy · #1 10-26-2007, 05:55 AM

I played some months ago 5/10 NL and went from $1200 to $8000 then lost it all and ended up -$2000 overall.

I took a break and went through all my hand histories, analysing where I was bleeding chips and making stupid moves.

I played some low stakes for combat practice and tended to go up 3x my buy in then lose as the favourite to a gambling donk.

So I just abandoned my online game, played the home game where I have an excellent 65% ITM and 27% 1st place win rate.

In the meantime I watch a lot of High Stakes Poker and read Skalansky.

Recently, it was my birthday. I decided to treat myself to $1200 online. I used the account I had previous gone up $8K and down $10K.

In about 7-8 hours of playing 5/10 I made $4000 profit. This morning I played some 10/20 for about 30 minutes and made $1130.

I had two lucky hands over the past two days where someone had the nut flush and I had quads, got paid max. Also I had a higher set over someone with a lower set and got paid max too. My win rate when I see the flop is around 80-90%.

I'm pretty much thinking of withdrawing everything again before I donk it off.

My question is this, am I just a lucky donk the poker software is favouring (because of my abscence from the tables for months) or am I actually any good and should continue to play?
I am thinking of withdrawing ALL my funds next 24 hours.

bagclip2007 · #2 10-26-2007, 05:57 AM

do it man trust me

Flip-Flop · #3 10-26-2007, 05:59 AM

I didn`t read your post but my expert answer is:
89%-99% of the time...lucky donk.

STA654 · #4 10-26-2007, 05:59 AM

Switch to a 20 BI system or don't be surprised when you bust.

2hi4me2cu · #5 10-26-2007, 06:00 AM

[?] bankroll management

GLmaestro · #6 10-26-2007, 06:00 AM

Your results are implying that you're really good, so why in the world would you cash out? You should probably move down to 2/4-3/6 on party though, 10/20 is a little too high.

Good luck!

toyotaboy · #7 10-26-2007, 06:03 AM

Yes, I agree my bankroll management should be about x20 the buy in, but I am a recreational player who dreams of being a pro. Not a pro trying to make his food and rent money.

I had made the mental decision with my $1200 that if I lost it, hey it was my birthday present and that's done.

I only played 10/20 for 'the buzz'. I just always wondered what it was like. I am really comfortable at the 5/10 or the 3/6 is fine too. But I like 9 player table and not short handed, so the 5/10 seems to run that quite often.

I could continue, but I feel playing online takes over my life and that's fine if I'm making $5-10K a week but when I lose that in a week it affects the rest of my life.

tannenj · #8 10-26-2007, 06:11 AM

i think you should move down to 2/4

Nielsio · #9 10-26-2007, 06:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i think you should move down to 1/2

[/ QUOTE ]

toyotaboy · #10 10-26-2007, 06:23 AM

I found too many donks at 2/4 who would gamble and out draw me. I've had better results at the 5/10. I prefer the tighter play at the 5/10.

2/4 seems to attract donks with $100 or so who just want to move all in.

1/2 was a nightmare, people just throwing their stacks away on draws and hitting.

I refuse to play anywhere where there is a total disrespect for pot odds. Therefore my bets are futile.