Tough Post-Bubble Decision ($50+5)

[seke2]

Honestly, I'm just trying to find some alternate ideas here. I'm pretty sure push is best largely because the CL would call us down with ace-rag and lower pairs here, and I imagine even from a $EV perspective it is probably right to push here. I really don't feel like doing the math to figure things out here, but Hero is basically guaranteed a spot at the FT and has a good shot of a nice cash if he doesn't get involved in this hand. If he does get involved, and the hand goes "well" (AKA everyone folds, Hero isolates against the shorties, and wins most/all of the pot), Hero doesn't really do much to improve his standing in the tournament. Now he's got 15k-16k, probably still in 2nd/3rd. If Hero pushes and gets a call from the big stack, and Hero wins, that's obviously awesome since Hero will become the CL, but I don't know how much additional $EV equity a 30k stack has over a 13k stack at this point anyway.

[ultimatemike]

If he had won that hand, he actually would have been moved to slight chipleader I think. Nevertheless, I think your point still stands.

Does this actually create a situation where you should fold pf to avoid getting involved with the (admittedly clownlike) chip leader? That seems rather nittish, especially given how slowly the payouts increase. I don't think I'd ever do that, I'm just wondering if there'd be grounds for it.

[seke2]

If I didn't push preflop, I think folding isn't much worse/better than calling, because I'm basically folding to avoid losing chips here in a slightly uncertain spot and preserve those chips for better future situations. I agree that it is a "nit" attitude, and probably incorrect in this specific spot because of our read on the CL's calling range. But you definitely need to at least consider $EV in this sort of spot when you have a large stack and a good amount of $EV equity and you are putting all of that at risk.

[ultimatemike]

At what point does this situation not become marginal? Obviously he had AA here, so going broke with KK would definately happen.

What if you had QQ? TT? 77? AK/AQ?

[seke2]

Well, since I'd probably go broke with 99 here, then I guess that's in my range. I dunno, AJ, 66/77 sounds about right. I might go broke with some worse aces because I think the shorties are more likely to be pushing raggy aces, so I might go down to AT or A9 on an isolation play too.

[LearnedfromTV]

i shove something like 66+, AJ+, KQ and don't think twice. You can't think about the limpers unless EP limping is extraordinarily rare for one of them; if a bigger stack had raised and then the 2500 stack shoved, or the bigger stack coldcalled the shove in front of you, then you'd have to narrow your range, maybe a lot, because of $EV/cEV considerations, but here no way.