How to Play This Set on Scary River? ($4/180)

Markusgc · #1 11-11-2006, 07:05 PM

Well, river, mainly, but certainly any other input would be swell too.

Villain is fairly loose and doesn't seem to quite get the whole "bad kicker" thing. I doubt anyone's noticed me.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t15/t30
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t1395
UTG+1: t2765
MP1: t780
MP2: t2230
CO: t2730
Button: t1060
SB: t4010
Hero: t1745

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3 folds, MP2 calls t30 (pot was t45), 2 folds, SB calls t15 (pot was t75), Hero checks.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t90, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t80, MP2 calls t80 (pot was t170), SB folds.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t250, 2 players)
Hero bets t230, MP2 calls t230 (pot was t480).

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t710, 2 players)
Hero?

I figured checking river was license to bluff at it, but flush draw was my best guess, but KT-Q were on my mind as well.

Coz · #2 11-11-2006, 07:32 PM

I think I would be betting something like 500 on the river, I doubt he would have called all the way to river with a flush draw. AK, KQ, KT, JJ, QJ, 1010, could all be possible hands for villian. Your right about checking the river and how it would give villian a license to bluff at it, either way I don't see you getting away from the set. If he called you all the way to river with flush draw then thats just a bad beat.

omaha · #3 11-11-2006, 07:54 PM

just a pain you were not on the button, and could raise a bet. I can see all those possibilities, a made hand one two pair, or flush.

A shame you couldnt get more money in the pot, but the more you bet on the flop, the less callers you get.

Just a thought, if he is a major donk, would you consider an all in on the turn? you are hoping he has kq and calls, will get the pot if he doesnt, and if he is drawing at a straight/flush he will not have odds for it. If there was more in the pot and less behind, i would do it instantly , but, if you do this, you will be betting 8*the pot. Then again, sometimes the stupid bets get the stupid calls. I remember reading somewhere where howard lederer got AQ and folded it to an all in on a q high board, afraid that his opponent already had two pair/set/and if opp had flush draw, he still would have lost it one out of three

Any thought on an all in on the turn? I think he has Kx or a spade draw.

skylos · #4 11-11-2006, 08:24 PM

Yeah I think a check is the best line here because if you bet something like 250ish and he raises big like all in or something more than minraiase its really hard to call and you also give him a chance to think his two pair are good and its worth the risk of getting checked through since he probably has something worth betting.

0evg0 · #5 11-11-2006, 08:58 PM

bet/fold 300 on river