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#1
05-30-2007, 01:08 AM
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AKs river decision
67/32/0.8/40/ 30 hands
PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls. Flop: (13 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, Button folds. Turn: (7.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls. River: (9.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero Final Pot: 9.50 BB 
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#2
05-30-2007, 01:15 AM
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Re: AKs river decision
b/c > check and that's as far as you need to go really. yeah whether or not to call a raise is a decision, but it is far more important that you get the decision to bet in the first place.
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#4
05-30-2007, 02:36 AM
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Re: AKs river decision
I bet and call a raise.
You are ahead of QQ, A9, A8, KQ, QT. You should really only worry about JJ, KJ, JT, QJ and maybe 66. By checking you allow the first part of that range to play perfect while the secon part will win 1 bet from you anyway. Even if you fold or call incorrectly to a raise you will loose less than what you will loose when he checks behinds all those hands that calls a bet.
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#5
05-30-2007, 03:13 AM
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Re: AKs river decision
[ QUOTE ]
By checking you allow the first part of that range to play perfect while the secon part will win 1 bet from you anyway. Even if you fold or call incorrectly to a raise you will loose less than what you will loose when he checks behinds all those hands that calls a bet. [/ QUOTE ] where do you get the statistics for this kind of thinking ? I mean I love it it's just that I don't know how to begin thinking like this....
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#6
05-30-2007, 03:45 AM
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Re: AKs river decision
I would definitly bet this river.
Villain seems to be very loose/aggressive preflop and passive postflop. His initial range should be wide. Oink defined i good range of possible holdings after the action on all streets. Given villains loose-/passiveness i would add KT (special K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]), maybe K6 to his range. I'm not so sure if hero can call a riverraise from a callingstation.
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#7
05-30-2007, 04:10 AM
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Re: AKs river decision
[ QUOTE ]
I bet and call a raise. You are ahead of QQ, A9, A8, KQ, QT. You should really only worry about JJ, KJ, JT, QJ and maybe 66. By checking you allow the first part of that range to play perfect while the secon part will win 1 bet from you anyway. Even if you fold or call incorrectly to a raise you will loose less than what you will loose when he checks behinds all those hands that calls a bet. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] By checking you allow the first part of that range to play perfect while the secon part will win 1 bet from you anyway. Even if you fold or call incorrectly to a raise you will loose less than what you will loose when he checks behinds all those hands that calls a bet. [/ QUOTE ] where do you get the statistics for this kind of thinking ? I mean I love it it's just that I don't know how to begin thinking like this.... [/ QUOTE ] When he calls and you win, you win an extra bb from him. Lets use the aforementioned range for his calling standards (although I am sure some guys are much more broad as I have seen 22-55 make this call at times). Add up the hands that we are ahead of. 8 instances of QQ 9 of A9 9 of A8 12 of KQ 12 of QJ That means that we win 50 BB from him when he calls and we win. When he raises and we call (and lose), we lose 2 BB. We lose to 6 instances of JJ 8 of KJ 12 of JT 16 of QJ 6 of 66 We lose 48 bets to that specific range if we bet fold. We win more than we lose when we bet out, and I would be willing to gamble that villian calls with more losers than we have given for his range, making a bet even more important. I didn't think it was that close, but we have to be sure that if he raises the river, that we are not folding a winner.
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#8
05-30-2007, 07:35 AM
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Re: AKs river decision
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I bet and call a raise. You are ahead of QQ, A9, A8, KQ, QT. You should really only worry about JJ, KJ, JT, QJ and maybe 66. By checking you allow the first part of that range to play perfect while the secon part will win 1 bet from you anyway. Even if you fold or call incorrectly to a raise you will loose less than what you will loose when he checks behinds all those hands that calls a bet. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] By checking you allow the first part of that range to play perfect while the secon part will win 1 bet from you anyway. Even if you fold or call incorrectly to a raise you will loose less than what you will loose when he checks behinds all those hands that calls a bet. [/ QUOTE ] where do you get the statistics for this kind of thinking ? I mean I love it it's just that I don't know how to begin thinking like this.... [/ QUOTE ] When he calls and you win, you win an extra bb from him. Lets use the aforementioned range for his calling standards (although I am sure some guys are much more broad as I have seen 22-55 make this call at times). Add up the hands that we are ahead of. 8 instances of QQ 9 of A9 9 of A8 12 of KQ 12 of QJ That means that we win 50 BB from him when he calls and we win. When he raises and we call (and lose), we lose 2 BB. We lose to 6 instances of JJ 8 of KJ 12 of JT 16 of QJ 6 of 66 We lose 48 bets to that specific range if we bet fold. We win more than we lose when we bet out, and I would be willing to gamble that villian calls with more losers than we have given for his range, making a bet even more important. I didn't think it was that close, but we have to be sure that if he raises the river, that we are not folding a winner. [/ QUOTE ] - Add A7 and K5, K4, K3, K2 to his calling range - It appears bet/fold has less value than what I thought. The thing is however that c/c most likely is much worse. If he bets all his better hands but checks behind his worse hands then Hero stands to loose 1BB on c/c'ing. Of course he will bet some worse hands, but on this board it is very likely he will check behind worse hands a LOT. - So maybe c/f isnt far behind b/f or b/c. (I am not sure b/c is +EV here). But c/c is just plain terrible, even against a complete moron I would guess its -EV.
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#9
05-30-2007, 10:56 AM
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Re: AKs river decision
I basiclly would b/f sometimes i call a raise, i would never c/c and i dont know if I ever would c/f if i have a read...whatever this is a crappy spot and the importanst thing to know it that we basiccly never should c/c, and the choose weather to b/c b/f or even c/f should depend on our read. Vs an unknown i tend to b/c though. Vs him i would b/f though his sample size is limited.
Basiclly i like to valuebet and saving bets when behind so i b/f [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#10
05-30-2007, 11:33 AM
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Re: AKs river decision
I cant follow the concept behind c/f the river.
If villain is the callingstation we suppose and he knows hero is a TAG, what does this rivercheck mean to villain. He may think that hero missed his AQ hand and bets his QT middlepair. He doesnt do this as a bluff, but he maybe misinterpret heros hand. A callingstation can bet his medium hands at the river when the aggressor shows no interest anymore. Am i so wrong here?
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