2/4 76suited probably poor play

HWO · #1 01-24-2007, 11:58 AM

MP: 26/17/2.5af

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks.

River: (3.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 4.25 BB

Wolfram · #2 01-24-2007, 12:18 PM

Flop call is pretty thin.

You got plenty of free cards, which is nice, and I think the river is a correct fold. Pot is too small to "keep him honest".

ILOVEPOKER929 · #3 01-24-2007, 01:08 PM

You played this hand fine.

Thorv · #4 01-24-2007, 02:09 PM

I usually fold this flop. If instead of AQ6 it was A6x, I'd call, or probably raise, but with a flop of two broadway cards involved, I'm folding. His PFR % is low. Usually he's got higher PP, AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, QJ.

Thorv · #5 01-24-2007, 02:11 PM

If somehow it is statistically correct to call that flop, you're still out of position. Not often do many, especially me, disagree with the wisdom of 929, but here I can't see how calling is the right play.

milesdyson · #6 01-24-2007, 02:17 PM

I don't know about the flop. You might get free cards often enough to draw here.

I know a million fish would donk the turn.

Wolfram · #7 01-24-2007, 02:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If somehow it is statistically correct to call that flop, you're still out of position. Not often do many, especially me, disagree with the wisdom of 929, but here I can't see how calling is the right play.

[/ QUOTE ]
Let's examine the flop call a bit.
We have bottom pair plus a runner-runner flush draw. That gives us about 6.5 outs. The pot is offering us 5.5:1 on a call and our odds of improving are about 1:6.

The problem is that his pfr-range from MP is probably pretty tight and this flop can hit him in several ways. We also probably have to dodge a lot of redraws on the river. So I think it would be fair to discount at least 1-1.5 of our outs.

Still. given that we have only 5 "adjusted" outs (making us a 1:8.4 dog) I think we can peel because we should almost always make up that 1.5BB difference with implied odds.

On top of that we might get a free turn if he's playing scared KK or JJ.

Thoughts?

CrayZee · #8 01-24-2007, 04:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know about the flop. You might get free cards often enough to draw here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, pretty marginal either way. Villain could be checking behind w/ a reasonable pair+ to induce a bluff/river call. Hard to say w/o any info other than a couple stats.

ILOVEPOKER929 · #9 01-24-2007, 06:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If somehow it is statistically correct to call that flop, you're still out of position. Not often do many, especially me, disagree with the wisdom of 929, but here I can't see how calling is the right play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone who disagrees with me must be retarded! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Ok seriously though, youve put alot more thought into the flop play than I have which is a compliment since I never really think when im in this situation which cant be right. With a pair and a backdoor draw I just peel like its my job. And I always talk myself into believing that the villain will check the turn often enough to make this peel a better EV play than it looks, and I also tell myself that I will have the best hand and be able to showdown for one small bet when villain gives up and checks both the turn and river a nonzero percent of the time to also add value to my flop peel. Neither of these events has to be true but thats my thought process. The fact that I often check/call this flop with Ax and Qx may also help my cause if the villain is aware of my play which they usually are not.

Ultimately I cannot tell you if peeling this flop is better than folding. What I can tell you is I have never folded in that spot not becuz calling is right, but becuz calling just feels good. When two different plays are close in expectation I will usually choose the path that feels the best.

Heres another example that explains my case: Lets say I have the choice between dating two hot girls. They have the same characteristics except for one variable. One girl has an IQ of 145, the other has an IQ of 75. I will always choose the girl with the IQ of 75 not becuz its right, but becuz that decision feels the best. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I guess my point is not all my decions are rationally based in poker or in life.

Wolfram · #10 01-25-2007, 09:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Heres another example that explains my case: Lets say I have the choice between dating two hot girls. They have the same characteristics except for one variable. One girl has an IQ of 145, the other has an IQ of 75. I will always choose the girl with the IQ of 75 not becuz its right, but becuz that decision feels the best. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
nh sir!