Tough spot with AK: TPTK way deep

[tubasteve]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $156.60
BB: $115.00
UTG: $423.05
Hero (MP): $250.15
CO: $99.50
BTN: $100.00

Reads: <font color="blue">no major read, except that villain seemed kinda bad but I wasn't sure. he was like 24/15/1.6 over 1k hands but they were mostly datamined. he played a weird hand where he raised AKs and bet/3-bet AI on a rag board...getting it in against an A-high FD but losing. i guess he either really sucks or had an amazing read, but yea i thought he was kinda bad.

his c/r flop % was only 2% but over a 1k hand sample i'm not sure if that means much.</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $1.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4.50</font>, CO calls $4.50, 3 folds, UTG calls $3.50

Flop: ($15) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $11.00</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">UTG raises to $39.00</font>, Hero calls $28.00

Turn: ($93) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $70.00</font>, Hero....?

Pot Size: $93.00 ($3 Rake)

I don't really think the flop is anything but a call/reevalusate vs this guy. I was hoping he'd check his missed draws, and I was going to fold on any diamond, Q, 7, and I was going to consider folding if the 67 straight draw came in, or if the 8 paired. When he bet $70 I wasn't really sure what to do since I wasn't committed and I thought he would fire the river a lot. I assume fold is standard, but my read was that villain sucked so I'm still not sure.

edit: just realized if a diamond fell i'd have the nut redraw, but thats not good enough to continue on the turn if the flush comes and he makes a decent sized bet, right?

[tw0please]

can you explain why you didn't 3-bet the flop? there are a lot of draws villain could be doing that with and hoping that he will check a missed turn sounds like wishful thinking this deep.

[tubasteve]

because im not committed to the hand, i wanna keep the pot small. we're deep, normal rules about tptk=nuts on drawy boards don't apply here.

[Aschweinsteiger]

did villan really limp in with 88 or 99?
does he limp in with hands like A8 or A9?
does he limp in with hands as strong as AJ or AQ?
But if he had AQ/AJ would he raise with them here?
would he raise flush draws?

without any answers to any of these questions and no solid stats, this is a spot where u just have to guess. I would probably fold and respect his 2% c/r flop even if its not that reliable. But im stil not sure if i wanna fold this

[Nielsio]

Fold the flop and wait for a non guessing game spot to slice his stack.

[tubasteve]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the flop and wait for a non guessing game spot to slice his stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

this seems weak (as we've already discussed, lol)...does anyone else see any other play but call on the flop?

[Unknown Soldier]

i think folding the flop is fine, as played turn is a fold.

[fees]

can u assign a range to his limp-call?

[ThaHero]

That 24/15 leaves enough room IMO for limping in with 88 or 99. Also a lot of drawy hands. Other than folding the flop, calling and reevaluating is good too. Given the action and being deep, fold the turn. If he turns out to be bad you have position on him and can wait for a better spot.

[tubasteve]

midpairs and below, SCs, a lot of Axs, and sometimes like AT or KJ maybe.