cardsharkk04 style, Plan: Make him fold his overpair

[cts]

MP2 is donk_on_tilt. From our play together I've gotten the impression he's very nitty, but now that I see his numbers it looks like he's actually about 18/12 in full ring. We haven't played too many hands together and I have no idea how he views me, but I haven't gotten out of line too much.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $20 BB (9 handed)

CO ($1890)
Button ($2622)
SB ($2777)
Hero ($2179)
UTG ($1970)
UTG+1 ($3391)
MP1 ($2354.53)
MP2 ($2050)
MP3 ($412.23)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $10.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $60</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls $40.

Flop: ($130) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $100</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $350</font>, MP2 calls $250.

Turn: ($830) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $777</font>

Thoughts?

[leemur]

Bet/3Bet flop

why aren't you all in before the turn?

he's never folding an overpair here. in fact he's probably just gonna jam on your ass.

at least if you get it in on the flop you have better equity vs an overpair since you get to see 2 cards instead of one and probably have more FE

[D104]

I think this is a good alternative to the usual bet-3bet line.

He's never folding an overpair here? Really? I mean if that is the case, then yeah - only play for sets against the guy and stack him everytime you flop big.

This play has to have some fold equity, and it doesn't have to be high for this play to be profitable, as you have 20 outs against TT+.

vs. AA you are 47/53 on the flop and 43/57 on the turn. So I guess the question is - which is higher, your fold equity with a bet-3bet line or your fold equity with this line?

To me, this line looks much stronger than a bet-3-bet.

D

[MDMA]

This isn't bad at all against nits. A LOT of nits are taking the brain-dead line of calling the checkraise with an overpair just to fold to a bet on turn even if a blank falls. They're used to facing bad players who often enough give up after their checkraises get called and just checks turn. Generally I do not like checkraises and usually I prefer leading, but this is fine. Also, I think people are overestimating the times nits actually raise with overpairs here. They are prone to cold-call, believe me, so most of the the time you do not get a "bet-3-bet"-chance here. Still, leading flop and leading turn is just fine as well.

[cts]

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't bad at all against nits. A LOT of nits are taking the brain-dead line of calling the checkraise with an overpair just to fold to a bet on turn even if a blank falls.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yea, I see this a lot.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I think people are overestimating the times nits actually raise with overpairs here.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is what I thought as well. If I played the hand over I think I would have checkraised a little more on the flop, but from what I've seen this opponent is nitty/passive (may or may not be true, not a ton of hands) and a bet/3bet is certainly not guaranteed.

[Dan BRIGHT]

CTS- do you usually defend 43s here or is this a case of the predictably-bad-postflop opponent?

[DJ Sensei]

if villain knows hero is an aggressive semibluffer, he may also realize that 87 just got there. so thats a bonus.

he calls and river bricks = C/F, right?

also, happy birfday

[cts]

[ QUOTE ]
CTS- do you usually defend 43s here or is this a case of the predictably-bad-postflop opponent?

[/ QUOTE ]
Dan, I figured someone would ask about preflop. I do not usually defend here, but did in this instance for exactly the reason you gave (opponent seems very predictable postflop and my HUD had him at like 12/9 so I figured from MP, he had a premium hand he was ready to stack off with) combined with the fact that his preflop minraise is wimpy.

[cts]

[ QUOTE ]
if villain knows hero is an aggressive semibluffer, he may also realize that 87 just got there. so thats a bonus.


[/ QUOTE ]
Yea I thought this was a great turn card for a nice big bet since 87 got there and it gives me a flush draw. I could definitely be checkraising this flop with 87.

[ QUOTE ]
he calls and river bricks = C/F, right?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yea, I'm definitely beat and there's not enough money left to bluff.

[ QUOTE ]
also, happy birfday


[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks!