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#1
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Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
blanko: That's absolutely true. But a LOT of people get tilty or at least let the losses affect their game. I think most people underestimate the value of reduced variance.
I'm not saying shoving is a bad move, I just think there might be better situations to get your money in. I'm not sure that the "instashove, fist pump" are seeing that Villain is 1/3 to win if he's beat, and 91-99% to win with a made hand. The long term profit margin, if there is one, is pretty low. |
#2
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Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying shoving is a bad move, I just think there might be better situations to get your money in. [/ QUOTE ] I think this concept is irrelevant tbh. Of course we'd prefer if we had top set, but we don't. We have a situation where we rank the decisions available, and take the decision which has highest EV. If shoving has higher EV than folding, then we shove. If we have a better spot later, like we can get AIPF with AA, great. But that does not affect what we should do on this hand. |
#3
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Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
I'd be really surprised if he folds KK, AQ, KQ or maybe even worse queens. I also don't think you can discount him raising a flush draw at least some small % of the time. Just get it in.
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#4
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Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
[ QUOTE ]
blanko: That's absolutely true. But a LOT of people get tilty or at least let the losses affect their game. I think most people underestimate the value of reduced variance. I'm not saying shoving is a bad move, I just think there might be better situations to get your money in. I'm not sure that the "instashove, fist pump" are seeing that Villain is 1/3 to win if he's beat, and 91-99% to win with a made hand. The long term profit margin, if there is one, is pretty low. [/ QUOTE ] villain has us crushed like ~10% of the time at most |
#5
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Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
[ QUOTE ]
I just think there might be better situations to get your money in. [/ QUOTE ] If this situation is +EV to push, and there is more EV in pushing than calling or folding, then you should do that. There is no better spots. This is a spot where you can make money long term if you keep doing this move so I do not see a reason not to. There is no point in waiting for better spots when you have a perfectly good spot here. Also, variance should not really play a role in your strategy as long as you are properly rolled for the game. Concerning the hand itself, I shove here too. I can see you being called with one pair hands all day long. Calling is OK too as it allows him to stack off easier with on e pair hands, but there are a lot of scare cards and action killers, so I push. |
#6
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Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
I actually think that it is close EV - wise. I'm stil not totally convinced that it's + EV.
The fact that I had seen him play an overpair 'slow' tipped me towards pushing. When I have a tough decision I often end up giving up thinking and just push. I did. When he didn't snap-call, I did cartwheels inside, knowing he only had 1 pair. Eventually he called with AQ- so we got it in good. However, I think that the majority of the time when he calls we are crushed. From the comments on tilting, it's really not a problem that affects me. However, sometimes I have to adjust as others may imagine that I'd be on tilt and so call / raise me lighter. Also, I have £ on deposit at the club so don't have an issue of having to leave table to withdraw £ etc, so have no problem getting it in when only marginally EV. |
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